College football best bets, picks for Week 4

The national championship is as open entering Week 4 of the college football season as it has been the entire season.

Georgia is the favorite with +180 odds, followed closely by Alabama and Ohio State. Those three teams are drastically ahead of the next tier, which consists of USC, Clemson, and Michigan.

There are plenty of elite games on this slate, and below are my college football best bets for Week 4.

Kent State vs. Georgia

Georgia’s the only team in college football that is currently seen as untouchable. They’ve had a flawless start to the season, winning their games by an average of 40 points per game. The Bulldogs didn’t allow a touchdown until the fourth quarter of their third game. Backups were in at this point in time.

Georgia will get their second cupcake matchup of the season against Kent State this weekend. Their first one was a 33-0 win over Samford in Week 2. Kent State owns a 1-2 record, losing to UCLA and Oklahoma before beating LIU in Week 3.

I’m betting the first half of this game, as it should be over relatively early. I don’t want to rely on Georgia’s backups scoring with conservative play calling. We could see something similar to the Samford game where the Bulldogs scored 30 points in the first half and only 3 in the second half.

Overall, Georgia’s averaging 27.3 points per game in the first half this season. They have a difference-margin of 26.3 points per game in those contests. Most importantly, they were leading by 25 points at half against Oregon in Week 1.

There is a massive difference in talent between the SEC and MAC conferences, and Georgia should have the edge everywhere in this game. Kent State needs to run the ball to find success, and that isn’t going to happen against one of the best run defenses in the NCAA.

This play comes down to how efficient Georgia can be on offense to find this large of a lead. Stetson Bennett is making his case as one of the best Heisman picks, and I’m expecting a massive first half to help inch him closer in an easier game.

Best Bet: Georgia 1H -29.5 (+100) | FanDuel Sportsbook

TCU vs. SMU

TCU will face off against SMU in a battle of two dominant offenses. The Horned Frogs currently rank fifth in the NCAA in points per play (0.717) this season. Granted, they haven’t faced any great defenses, scoring 38 and 59 against Colorado and Tarleton State, respectively.

On the other side, SMU ranks 46th in points per play (0.455) this season. They scored 48 and 45 in easier matchups against North Texas and Lamar in the first two weeks of the season. They followed that up with 27 points against Maryland in Week 3.

The key is that they aren’t going to face dominant defenses in this game. Both teams are expected to have well below-average defenses this season. Phil Steele projects TCU to allow 31.2 points per game and SMU to allow 31.7 in 2022.

TCU isn’t one of the faster-paced teams in the NCAA, but SMU is going to push the pace in this game. The Horned Frogs will look to slow things down at times, but it’s generally difficult to slow the game down too much against an offense like SMU if you can’t stop them from scoring.

This is an extremely high total, which is concerning. With that being said, the Mustangs will force the issue, and both of these offenses are drastically better than the defenses. These will be the best offense each team has played thus far, and there should be plenty of points scored in this game.

Best Bet: TCU/SMU o70.5 (-110) | DraftKings Sportsbook

North Texas vs. Memphis

North Texas is one of the most interesting teams in college football to bet the over on. Their games are generally extremely simple. They have a solid offense, but they don’t have the ability to slow down virtually any offense. If the Mean Green are going to be able to score in their game, the over is viable.

North Texas started out the season on a high note, surprisingly holding UTEP to only 13 points. Since then, they’ve given up an average of 44.3 points per game. They allowed a terrible UNLV offense to score 58 points.

North Texas will face off against Memphis, who has caught offensive fire in recent weeks. They’ve scored 37 and 44 points in their last two games. They feature a solid offense, but that doesn’t truly matter for this matchup. Bad offenses would be able to score in this game.

More importantly, Memphis doesn’t boast an elite defense. They oddly held Navy to 13 points in Week 2. Outside of that, they allowed 49 and 32 points to Mississippi State and Arkansas State.

This isn’t a game about pace. It’s about North Texas being able to find offensive success. Their defense isn’t going to be able to slow down Memphis, and we should see plenty of scoring from both teams. Specifically, North Texas should find success with their run game, while Memphis scores in a multitude of ways.

Best Bet: North Texas/Memphis o68.5 (-107) | PointsBet

Western Michigan vs. San Jose State

Similar to North Texas, San Jose State is a team that can dictate the total. They feature an outstanding defense, although they struggle to put points on the board. Through only two games, the Spartans are averaging only 18.5 points per game. They’re also allowing only 20.5 points per game.

Their inability to score was on full display, scoring only 21 points against Portland State. We can flip the script here, though, as San Jose State’s defense was on full display in Week 2, holding Auburn to only 24 points.

Western Michigan struggled to score in two difficult matchups against Michigan State and Pittsburgh. They did find success against Ball State, although this matchup will be much closer to the former matchups rather than the latter.

There is some worry about Western Michigan’s defense, but they struggle more against the run than the pass. San Jose State isn’t great at either, but they’d prefer to throw the ball. If the Broncos can slow down Chevan Cordeiro, they should be able to slow down the entire San Jose State offense.

These are two teams that are likely to struggle to put points on the board. Both teams have struggled at times in the red zone, and if they’re trading field goals, this game should lean heavily toward the under at 49 points.

Best Bet: Western Michigan/San Jose State u49 (-107) | PointsBet