College football best bets, picks for Week 8

After last week’s college football slate saw Alabama upset and thrilling wins by TCU and Utah, we’ve got another strong slate with five different games featuring clashes between ranked teams.

However, it’s important to keep in mind that sometimes the best games from a viewing and entertainment standpoint as not the best games to wager on. We want to identify spots that are most likely to be profitable, even if the games themselves could be hard to watch.

Last week, we went 3-1 with our best bets when Iowa State covered against Texas, Michigan and Penn State hit the over, and Oklahoma State covered against TCU. Sadly, Michigan State bet Wisconsin by six but the spread was 7.5, so we missed out there.

There are plenty of strong betting games on this slate, and below are my college football best bets for Week 8.

SMU vs. Cincinnati

It might seem counterintuitive to take the underdog Mustangs when the Bearcats are the team coming off the bye, but here we are. I know Cincinnati is also the ranked team, but I’m also not convinced they’ve really played many good teams this year.

The Bearcats lost to Arkansas in Week 1 but then went on to beat Kennesaw State, Miami (OH), Indiana, Tulsa, and South Florida. Not only are none of those teams particularly good, but Cincinnati also played both Tulsa and South Florida way closer than you’d like to see.

Meanwhile, SMU has all three losses against a trio of top-40 teams in Maryland, UCF, and TCU. Two of those losses also the road.

In addition to the schedule, I think the matchup here favors SMU enough to keep this game close. The Mustangs use a quick passing attack which should limit the effectiveness of the Bearcats’ pass rush, which ranks third in the nation in Sack Rate. However, SMU is 13th in sack rate allowed, so it’s a battle of two strengths.

Yet, on the other end, the Mustangs actually rank 32nd in Sack Rate on defense against a Cincinnati offensive line that ranks 98th in Sack Rate. So it might actually be SMU that can create some havoc on defense, and while the Mustangs struggle in run defense, the Bearcats also struggle to run the ball.

I think the strengths and weaknesses of these teams balance out, and I think SMU as the home team with the harder schedule can definitely keep this close.

Best Bet: SMU + 4 | PointsBet (-107) or DraftKings (-110)

Ole Miss vs. LSU

This could be a good, old-fashioned SEC defensive struggle.

LSU has one of the best front sevens in the country and currently rank as the 15th-best run defense in the country. But Ole Miss also has a pretty good front seven which is top-30 in expected points added per rush and also top-30 in rushing explosiveness allowed.

So these are two really good run defenses. That matters because both of these offenses really want to run.

Ole Miss runs the ball 65.5% of the team. They’ve been having success, ranking 9th in rushing success at 5.7 yards per carry. Meanwhile, LSU has four different running backs that average over 4.5 yards per carry and a quarterback in Jaylon Daniels who has run the ball 90 times this season.

These two teams are going to run the ball into the teeth of their opponent’s strength, which will run the clock while also keeping the score low.

Best Bet: Ole Miss/LSU Under 67.5 | FanDuel (-105)

UCLA vs. Oregon

Unlike the game we just covered, this one has two of the fastest-paced offenses in college football going at it UCLA runs 72.2 plays per game, while Oregon runs 70.2 UCLA runs a play every 23 seconds on offense, so it’s no surprise that five of UCLA’s games and four of Oregon’s have gone over the total this season.

UCLA is also 6th in the nation with 509.8 yards gained per game, while Oregon is 14th with 494.2 yards gained per game. Oregon is also one of the best teams in the nation at converting drives into touchdowns, while their defense is among the worst at preventing touchdowns.

That makes me feel good about UCLA scoring points, but Oregon has also looked really good since getting blown out by Georgia in Week 1, and this offense now averages 42 points per game. I think this has a chance to be a real shootout, much like the Utah and USC game that topped 80 total points.

If this over/under goes above 73 then I get a bit less confident in it, but I love the bet right now.

Best Bet: UCLA/ORE o70.5 | DraftKings Sportsbook (-110)

South Carolina vs. Texas A&M

So Texas A&M has just two wins against FBS teams on the season, against Miami and Arkansas, but you could argue that they were outplayed in both games. Miami outgained them by 128 total yards and held the Aggies to just 140 yards passing. However, Miami had the only turnover and missed two field goals.

Arkansas also outgained Texas A&M by 82 yards and held the Aggies to just 151 yards passing. But, again, Arkansas had the only turnover and missed a crucial field goal.

I also don’t care that the Aggies hung around against Alabama since the Tide started a backup quarterback and had multiple turnovers that led to points for Texas A&M.

The Aggies are currently last in the SEC in points per game because they play a grind-it-out style and have missed key playmakers. However, both quarterbacks – Max Johnson and Haynes King – are dealing with some injuries, and King has been pretty poor, so we have no idea who will guide this offense.

This South Carolina defense is also healing up and playing much better of late, so I think they could pose a real challenge for a relatively mediocre Aggies offense. Especially since the Gamecocks have a running attack, led by MarShawn Lloyd, that has been top 30 in both expected points added per Rush and Rush Success Rate. If this game remains close, and South Carolina can continue to use Lloyd, they could cover this spread.

Best Bet: South Carolina +3.5 | DraftKings Sportsbook (-110)