MLB Over/Under Bet of the Day
San Francisco Giants at Philadelphia Phillies
First pitch: 6:05 p.m. ET
Probable pitchers: Carlos Rodon (4-2, 3.60 ERA) vs. Aaron Nola (2-4, 3.56 ERA)
How dare the linesmakers disrespect two legitimate aces like this. Considering other, inferior pitching matchups from Citizens Bank Park have garnered a low total, this particular one should have drawn no higher than a 7.5 over/under tag.
We’ll see if we can convert that extra half run to our benefit. Having that round number of 8 can be so, so crucial, let alone with two guys who are just dealing.
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Both Carlos Rodon and Aaron Nola helped pace under victories for us in their last starts, respectively. Rodon did not make it through the sixth and curiously only struck out two but he did battle in tough conditions (remember there was a near-two-hour rain delay before first pitch) to still churn out a fine outing. Meanwhile, Nola had his best masterpiece of the year in going eight-plus frames and accumulating a season-best 10 strikeouts.
As I wrote about entering that assignment, this is what we should come to expect from Nola: All-Star pitching every turn.
The LSU product will have a fairly tough matchup tonight, taking on the club that ranks third in baseball in runs scored per game (5.08). However, I counter with the assessment that given the run Nola is on and will continue on, the opponent doesn’t really phase my view of the right-hander.
Plus, this start tonight will be emanating from Nola’s place of preference. Despite the reputation Philadelphia carries for being friendlier to hitters, the Phillies staff leader has actually excelled more in this ballpark than anywhere else collectively. In fact, his career 3.15 ERA and 1.07 WHIP at home easily best the 4.22 ERA and 1.23 WHIP he’s registered when on the road.
Not only that, Nola’s strikeout rate is much higher when pitching in front of the Philly faithful. Just contrast the 10.94 K/9 he’s posted at home with the 9.25 K/9 he’s managed in his away outings. Evidently, Nola gets a boost in this place of comfort.
So, we’ll trust Nola once more for some delicious home cooking. Rodon will be capable of etching the punch-outs, too, of course, once again residing in the top three in the Majors in strikeout rate (11.52 K/9) among all qualified starting pitchers.
This matchup then plays in favor of Rodon. The Phillies strike out a bunch, and even more so when facing a southpaw. In fact, they’re going down via the K once every 3.5 at-bats opposite left-handers.
Get your wager in quickly. This over/under might drop down a tick before the first pitch.
2022 MLB Over/Under Betting Record*: “27-21-5,” +3.05 units
Yesterday’s Result: Pirates-Dodgers Under 8.5 (WIN)
*Each bet graded as if it were to win 1 unit