2022-23 NBA MVP race: Odds and best bets for Nikola Jokic, Luka Doncic, and more

The 2022-23 NBA season gets underway tonight with a doubleheader between the Celtics and 76ers and the Lakers and Warriors. 

It’ll be the first chance for a few MVP contenders to make their case. All of Joel Embiid, Jayson Tatum, LeBron James, and Stephen Curry have either won MVP awards or been in the running in the past, and each of them is at least in the discussion heading into this season.

But who are the current NBA MVP favorites?

Below, we’ll go over the current betting odds as we begin the NBA season, and we’ll discuss some of our favorite bets based on the value you are getting at those odds. 

Current NBA MVP Betting Odds

All odds courtesy of Draftkings Sportsbook, which you can visit here

What Makes an MVP?

Before we get into the potential contenders, let’s look quickly at a few facts about recent MVPs.

• Fourteen of the past 15 MVPs have scored at least 25 points per game.
• 16 of the 23 MVPs from 2000 on have played on a number one-seed
• Four of the remaining seven MVPs played on a number two-seed
• 19 of the 23 MVPs from 2000 on have been 28 years old or younger

Favorites

Luka Doncic (+450) is the current betting favorite, and it’s easy to see why from a talent standpoint. He averaged 28 points, nine rebounds, and nine assists last year and will likely be asked to do more with Jalen Brunson now in New York. However, the Mavericks are projected by Five Thirty Eight Sports to be the 3rd seed in the West, which actually feels a bit generous since I’m not sure this is a better team than the Warriors and Suns. So if the Mavericks are a five-seed, will Doncic still get the MVP votes? It’s tough to trust that given his odds are less favorable than other contenders. 

Joel Embiid (+500) has been the runner-up each of the last two seasons, so there is an argument to be made that he could earn the award based on his collective effort over the last few years. Embiid led the league in scoring last year and plays for a team that could certainly contend to be the top-seed in the East. The only hiccup for Embiid is missed time since he’s sat out 35 games over the last two seasons. If he can be fully healthy this year, it could be the year he takes home the NBA MVP. 

Giannis Antetokounmpo (+500) always remains in the conversation because he’s one of the best players in the league on a team that has contended for the East title for a few years running now. He averaged 30 points, 11.6 rebounds, 5.8 assists, and 1.4 blocks last season, which is just ridiculous. If the Bucks can stay healthy and remain in contention in the East, Giannis could be a great bet. 

Contenders 

Nikola Jokic (+1000) is the two-time defending NBA MVP, and you’re getting crazy good odds right now on him winning again. The only thing I can think is that Vegas assumes they’ll be voter fatigue and people will want somebody else to claim the prize. The Nuggets are projected by Five Thirty Eight to be the best team in the West, Jokic is just 27 years old, and last year he averaged 27 points, 13.8 rebounds, 8 assists, and 1.5 steals per game.

If Jokic continues to play that well and the Nuggets are one of the best teams in the West, are people really going to vote for somebody else just because they don’t want him to win? I can’t see it, so I’d be placing a vote on Jokic with these odds for sure. 

Jayson Tatum (+1200)

From Jokic we go to the best player on the team that Five Thirty Eight projects to win the East. Last year, Tatum averaged 27 points, eight rebounds, 4.4 assists, and one steal per game. Obviously, that’s not on par with the other guys we’ve mentioned, but it’s certainly not bad and we’ve seen him go on stretches with multiple 30-point games, so it’s possible there’s another level since he’s still just 24 years old. If Tatum does continue to improve, and the Celtics are the cream of the crop in the East, there is certainly an argument that he could steal the award. 

Ja Morant (+1400) is in the mix here but feels like a bit of a longshot. Last season, he averaged 27.4 points, 6.7 assists, and 5.7 rebounds per game on a Grizzlies team that was the number-two seed in the West, and he still finished 7th in the MVP voting. The Grizzlies are now without Jaren Jackson Jr. for the start of the season, but Five Thirty Eight has them as the second-best team in the West, so if you believe that they can overcome the injuries to reach that level, it might mean Morant had an MVP-caliber season. 

Longshots

I know Kevin Durant (+1000) isn’t a longshot by odds but he’s 34 years old, which would make him one of the oldest MVPs in recent memory. He also has been embroiled in the Nets’ off-court drama and is not a lock to play enough games to warrant MVP conversation if the Nets shenanigans continue again. 

The games played argument is also an issue for Kawhi Leonard (+1800) and LeBron James (+1800). LeBron is regularly rested now that he’s 37 years old, and if we’re going to knock Durant’s MVP candidacy because of age, we have to with LeBron. The Lakers also seem like a bit of a mess with all the Russell Westbrook distractions, so it’s hard to be confident in a bet on LeBron.

Kawhi, on the other hand, is more intriguing. He missed all of last season rehabbing a knee injury, but he’s allegedly fully healthy this year and on a Clippers team that is an early favorite to win the NBA Championship. Of course, Kawhi has battled injuries in the past, and Five Thirty Eight projects Los Angeles to finish 7th in the West, so it really depends on how you view their season. Yet, Kawhi is one of the most talented all-around players in the NBA, and if you think the Clippers are a legit contender, he’s a great bet with these odds. 

Stephen Curry (+1300) is another player on the wrong side of the age criteria for the NBA MVP, but he was playing lights out last year before getting hurt. The Warriors should likely be in the NBA title conversation again, but there is some dysfunction off the court in Golden State, so we’re unsure how this team will come together. If they are positioned to make a deep run, will guys like Curry, Draymond Green, and Klay Thompson take more games off to prepare for the playoffs? Could that hurt Curry’s chances since he doesn’t have the all-around numbers that guys like Jokic or Giannis have? It’s a bit too risky a bet for me. 

Staff Picks

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