Sunday Night Football has another home run matchup in Week 5. One week after Tom Brady’s return to New England, we get a rematch of last season’s AFC Championship Game. On the same field where the Kansas City Chiefs punched their tickets to a second straight Super Bowl, the Buffalo Bills will get their shot at revenge. When the schedule dropped, most believed this meeting would feature two unbeaten teams. That’s not the case, but both teams are still loaded with offensive talent at nearly every position.
Let’s take a look at the best Bills vs. Chiefs player props picks for this Week 5 Sunday Night Football showdown.
The Best Bills vs. Chiefs Player Props Picks
Josh Allen Over 342.5 Total Pass and Rush Yards
After putting up one of the greatest regular seasons ever witnessed in 2020 and being so close to making it to the Super Bowl, only to lose to a guy so many pundits continually paint you behind, Josh Allen has to be fired up for this one.
Despite the loss last season, Allen posted numbers in that game that would have easily cashed this prop, throwing for 287 yards and adding another 88 on the ground for 375 total yards. Yet, it was two fourth-quarter passes picked off by the Chiefs that will have left Allen feeling like he didn’t do enough.
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Allen’s Bills have scored 39.3 points per game in their last three contests, procuring two shutouts and winning each game by at least 22 points. You can expect a highly competitive matchup here with both offenses controlling the game much like the 38-24 meeting in last season’s playoffs. After all, these two teams have scored 30+ points in six of their eight combined games and 40+ three times already.
Kansas City can’t seem to stop anyone. They are second to last in the NFL in total yardage allowed with the third worst rush defense and the sixth worst pass stopping group. Opponents are averaging 291.8 yards per game through the air against Kansas City and the opposing quarterbacks have averaged over 44 yards rushing against this group.
That means quarterbacks facing the Chiefs this season are averaging over 336 total yards and none of them finished ahead of Allen in the MVP voting last season. He should have the best shot yet to put up monster numbers against a struggling defense.
This number is a huge nut to crack, but Allen topped it seven times last season, including twice in the playoffs when the games matter most. In this all-important rematch for Allen and his team, expect a legendary performance in a must-watch game.
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Cole Beasley Under 49.5 Receiving Yards
Cole Beasley should get extra attention from the Chiefs in this one, as he proved the biggest danger to them when these teams met in the AFC Championship Game last winter. Beasley led all Bills in catches (7) and receiving yards (88), being targeted nine times, second behind only Stefon Diggs (11).
Beasley may find it tougher sledding against Kansas City this time around, as they have been stingy against opposing slot receivers this season, despite their overall poor pass defense. Jalen Reagor, Quez Watkins, and Greg Ward combined for five catches and 57 yards for Philadelphia, Donovan Peoples-Jones had one catch for four yards for Cleveland, and Devin Duvernay failed to catch a ball for Baltimore, as did Jalen Guyton for the Chargers. While Beasley is a better receiver than each of those guys, they are all such a far cry from cashing this prop that we have to take our chances that the Bills’ slot guy, with the extra attention likely afforded him, will suffer a similar fate Sunday night.
Beasley has been all over the map this season in terms of production. He caught a total of 19 balls for 158 yards in the games against Washington and Pittsburgh, but caught just six balls for 52 yards against Miami and Houston. In 2020, Beasley failed to top this prop’s number in seven of his 15 regular season games, which is wild considering he caught over 100 balls for nearly 1,000 yards last year. One of those games was a four catch, 45-yard performance against the Chiefs, so we know they have the ability to minimize his impact.
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Dawson Knox to Score a Touchdown – Yes
After just six catches on seven targets through the first two weeks of the season, Dawson Knox has suddenly found himself as a go-to guy for Josh Allen, especially around the end zone. Knox caught four of the five balls thrown his way in Week 3 and five of eight targets in Week 4 and has now scored a touchdown in three straight games for the Bills.
Playing for an offense that has scored 14 touchdowns over the last three weeks and averages the third most points per game in the league thus far (33.5) means ample opportunity to score for Buffalo’s starting tight end. It doesn’t hurt his cause that he’s facing the NFL’s second worst defense in terms of total yardage (437.8 total yards per game) and points allowed (31.3 points per game).
The Chiefs have also particularly struggled against opposing tight ends at points this season. Philadelphia tight ends combined for 11 catches, 116 yards, and a touchdown last week. In Week 1, Cleveland tight ends combined for seven catches and 120 yards with David Njoku leading the team in receiving yards. Even the Baltimore tight end group managed six of the team’s 18 total catches on the night in Week 2. With all of the outside weapons that Buffalo possesses, along with the threat via Allen’s legs, Knox should find himself some space in goal-to-go situations.
We expect his touchdown streak to reach four straight games.
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