It isn’t a matter of if but when at this point when Aaron Judge reaches 61 home runs and ties Roger Maris’ American League home run record he set in pinstripes back in 1961.
The record is within reach after Judge hit two dingers on Sunday in Milwaukee in a year that has been a magical one for the Yankees slugger. Now the Bronx bombers have a pair of games against the Pittsburgh Pirates on the docket followed by a three-game set with the rival Boston Red Sox.
Fittingly the next six games play out at Yankee Stadium with fans getting the chance to witness history firsthand which would cap what has already been a pretty exciting season in the Bronx so far. The question is when will the record-tying or even record-setting home run come?
Judge will face four right-handed starters over the next five games, with Luis Ortiz expected to start on Tuesday for Pittsburgh and Roansy Contreras slated to be on the mound on Wednesday. The Yankees superstar has fared well against righties this season batting .331 and hitting 46 of his 59 homers off a right-handed pitcher.
Across his career, he’s hit 162 home runs against righties.
So the odds are favorable that Judge can reach the milestone home run over the next six games in the Bronx. There is a 29.6% chance that home run No. 60 will come on Tuesday against the Pirates, according to FanGraphs, and a 20.9% chance that it occurs on Wednesday.
The site gives the odds of No. 6o coming on Thursday against the Red Sox coming in at 15.3%. As for the record-tying home run, FanGraphs gave the highest percentage of No. 61 happening on Thursday night against Boston at a 13.4% chance.
Judge’s five home runs against the Red Sox is the third most he’s hit against any MLB club this season and he’s 21 homers against Boston over the course of his career. He hit a pair of home runs last week against the Red Sox as well in the opening game of their two-game series in Boston.
For more Yankees and Aaron Judge coverage, visit amNY Sports
Interestingly enough, Judge has yet to get a hit off Thursday’s scheduled starter Michael Wacha in 14 at-bats against him. Judge has struck out nine times and walked once against Wacha.
All eyes will be on Judge until the end of the season as the baseball world waits to see how many home runs the slugger can hit before the playoffs begin. The odds are stacked in his favor to hit the record-tying or record-setting blast in the Bronx.