Saturday’s Belmont Stakes has all the makings of being one of the best horse races you’ll see this decade.
Kentucky Derby winner Sovereignty, whose connections sparked controversy by choosing to skip the Preakness Stakes and abandon a Triple Crown bid, and Preakness Stakes winner Journalism, who overcame horrendous traffic trouble in the stretch to prevail in that contest, will go head to head with six other colts in their quest to conquer “the test of the champion.” Indeed, if either Sovereignty or Journalism wins the Belmont, they will likely have wrapped up 3-year-old champions honors for this year, at the very least.
Once again, this year’s Belmont Stakes will be held at Saratoga Race Course as the massive reconstruction of Belmont Park continues. Because of the change in venue at the smaller, 9-furlong Saratoga main track, the Belmont Stakes will again be run at 1 1/4 miles rather than its traditional 1 1/2-mile distance.
Different venue and distance notwithstanding, the 157th edition of the Belmont Stakes could be one for the ages.
The 157th Belmont Stakes
Saturday, June 7
Saratoga Race Course, Saratoga Springs, NY
Distance: 1 1/4 Miles
Conditions: 3-year-olds, colts and geldings
Purse: $2 million
Post time: 7:04 p.m. ET
Television: FOX (coverage begins at 4 p.m. ET)
Pace Prediction
Rodriguez and Crudo are the two frontrunners in the field, and it would be shocking not to see them not to go to the lead almost as soon as the starting gate springs open. What happens over the next 4 furlongs will define who comes out on top at the end of the 10th furlong.
If Rodriguez and Crudo engage in a super-speed duel (think first quarter under 23 seconds, first half under 46 seconds), that sets up extremely well for Sovereignty, Journalism, Hill Road, and Baeza to close strongly, as the front-end pace will likely collapse by the time the field hits the quarter pole.
But if the first quarter and half of the Belmont is run just a little slower (first quarter under 24 seconds, first half under 48 seconds), it still sets up well for Sovereignty and Journalism, but it also gives Rodriguez a chance to take the field start to finish. Crudo, while he’s made big strides in recent races, does not yet have the speed or stamina to go the full 1 1/4 miles distance.
Then there’s the weather. Forecasts indicate there is a 50% chance of showers for Saturday. How much moisture will be in the track? If the Saratoga main track comes up muddy or sloppy by post time of the Belmont, that might give the edge to Sovereignty over Journalism again.
Picks to play
2.) Sovereignty — Skipping the Preakness Stakes was the right call for Sovereignty’s connections after the horse won a grueling Kentucky Derby over a very sloppy Churchill Downs track. He enters the Belmont fresh and ready to go. The question here is whether he can beat Journalism on a fast track, and there’s no reason to think he can’t. He definitely gets the edge on Journalism if the Saratoga track comes up wet.
7.) Journalism — How can you not love this horse after his Preakness win when he was squeezed badly in the stretch at Pimlico while six lengths behind, yet still had the guts and determination to not only recover from that traffic trouble but grab the win right on the wire? He is the class of his field, and possibly his generation, both of which will be cemented if he wins the Belmont. The only possible weakness he may have is that this will be his third race in five weeks; he is the only horse in the field to run a traditional Triple Crown schedule. Does he have enough left in the tank?
6.) Rodriguez — The bruised hoof that kept him out of the Kentucky Derby has healed, according to his connections, and it might prove to be a blessing in disguise for Rodriguez, who is the only horse in the Belmont field with more than five weeks away from the races. He’ll be fresh and ready to run this Saturday, and he will likely use his natural speed to try and take them from start to finish. If he can stay out of a speed duel with Crudo and set the tempo, Rodriguez stands a good chance of besting the Derby and Preakness winners.
