It’s Week 15 of the NFL season and the action is just heating up. We went a perfect 3-0 in our against-the-spread bets last week but missed on both of our game totals, so we’ll try and be better this week.
Spreads
Indianapolis Colts (+4.5) over Minnesota Vikings
The Vikings still appear to be one of the more overvalued teams in the NFL, even after last week’s loss to the Lions. They are 10-3 on the season but boast a negative point differential of -1. This Colts defense is a solid unit, and they had a bye week last week, so they’ve had extra time to prepare. I think the Colts will rely on their running game and defense to bleed the clock out and keep this low-scoring and Minnesota is 0-2-1 against the spread against teams scoring fewer than 20 points per game this year, so a low-scoring game does not favor them here.
BET AVAILABLE AT: FANDUEL SPORTSBOOK (-110)
Baltimore Ravens (+2.5) over Cleveland Browns
So the Ravens beat the Steelers last week without Lamar Jackson and are now underdogs to the 5-8 Browns, even though Lamar Jackson hasn’t been ruled out? Even if Jackson is out, I’m not sure Tyler Huntley will have major problems against a below-average Cleveland defense.
Baltimore is 5-2 against the spread on the road this season and is 10-4 against the spread in their last 14 games against the Browns. Deshaun Watson hasn’t looked great since making his debut and the Browns are just 4-12 against the spread against their own division under Kevin Stefanski, so I like Baltimore here as one of our best bets.
You can still find this at +3 on Caesers so take advantage of that if you can.
BET AVAILABLE AT: FANDUEL SPORTSBOOK (-105)
Atlanta Falcons (+4.5) over New Orleans Saints
The Falcons have cooled down after their competitive early season and are now turning to Desmond Ridder at quarterback, but I think this line is way too big. Are we really even sure Ridder is worse than Mariota? Plus, we know the Falcons are just going to run essentially all game, and Ridder was a really productive runner in college at Cincinnati.
This Saints team suffered a brutal collapse against Tampa Bay last time out and is essentially eliminated from playoff contention. Andy Dalton is also just 12-15 against the spread after a bye in his career, so there’s no real performance bump there, and I’m not sure what kind of motivation we’ll see out of New Orleans.
BET AVAILABLE AT: FANDUEL SPORTSBOOK (-110)
Game Totals
Baltimore/Cleveland (OVER 38)
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We’re going back to this game on the point total as well. This is simply too low scoring for two secondaries that have been really inconsistent this season. Cleveland is 7-5-1 on the over this season and 4-2-1 on the over when coming off of a loss. Only one of the Browns’ games all season has gone under this point total, so Vegas is really assuming the Ravens will tank if they want to keep the over/under this low.
BET AVAILABLE AT: BetMGM SPORTSBOOK (-110)
Giants/Commanders (UNDER 40.5)
The Giants have been one of the most profitable teams when betting the under, going 32-13-1 (71%) since the start of the 2020 season. They started the year 7-2 towards the under but have struggled of late, going over mainly due to defensive lapses in their last four.
Daniel Jones has struggled on primetime in his NFL career, which I think will limit the Giants’ offense a bit, but both of these teams need this win for playoff contention, so I really just expect a hard-fought defensive battle. The under is 15-5-1 in the Commanders’ past 21 home games, so when you pair that with the Giants’ success on the under, I like that angle as one of the best bets of this week.
BET AVAILABLE AT: POINTSBET SPORTSBOOK (-107)
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