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NFL MVP update: Best bets, biggest risers, more after Week 14

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Jalen Hurts is the NFL MVP favorite
Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts (1) reacts after a touchdown against the New York Giants during an NFL football game Sunday, Dec. 11, 2022, in East Rutherford, N.J. (AP Photo/Adam Hunger)

As we inch closer to the end of the NFL season, we’re starting to see the contenders separate from the pretenders, including with individual awards like the NFL MVP, where it seems like the competition is coming down to two names.

Each week we’ll take a look at how the odds are shifting in the NFL MVP race to try to help you identify the best bets or the biggest odds movement that might be best to ignore. While one or two weeks might not be enough to persuade you to change your bet, it’s always a good idea to keep an eye on the shifts in lines to see if it indicates value changes. 

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So what are the odds after Week 14?

Updated NFL MVP Odds

PLAYER ODDS
Jalen Hurts -140
Patrick Mahomes +200
Joe Burrow +600
Josh Allen +1800
Tua Tagovailoa +5000
Tyreek Hill +8000

Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook. Click here to view

Jalen Hurts (-140) has emerged as the betting favorite for the NFL MVP after passing for 217 yards and two touchdowns and rushing for 77 and another touchdown in the Eagles’ win over the Giants. On the season, Hurts leads the NFL in passer rating while throwing for 3,157 yards and 22 touchdowns with just three interceptions. Considering he also adds 686 yards rushing and another 10 touchdowns on the ground, it’s possible that we could see a 4,000 and 1,000 season, which would make Hurts a lock. 

The Eagles play the Bears this week but then face two solid defenses in the Cowboys and Saints before Hurts (and the rest of the starters) will likely sit out Week 18 against the Giants. If Hurts struggles at all against Dallas or New Orleans it could leave the door open for some other contenders, but that would be the only way he doesn’t claim the trophy right now. 

Patrick Mahomes (+200) is best positioned to overtake Hurts if the Philadelphia quarterback stumbles. In fact, Mahomes has been leading the MVP race for the last few weeks. He leads the NFL with 4,160 passing yards and 33 touchdowns, but he also threw three interceptions last week against the Broncos, giving him 11 on the season, which allowed Hurts to pass him. 

Kansas City ends the season with games against Houston, Seattle, Denver, and Las Vegas so it’s easy to envision them running the table, which gives Mahomes every opportunity to pass Hurts. If you believe in the Dallas defense or Mahomes’ ability to make magic happen like on that flip touchdown pass to Jerrick McKinnon, then this may be the best chance to place your money on Mahomes. 

While Joe Burrow (+600) is now up to third place, it seems highly unlikely he becomes a legitimate candidate to hoist the MVP trophy. Burrow ranks second in passing TDs with 27 and third in passing yards with 3,685, but he adds little value with his legs and the Bengals are unlikely to claim one of the top two seeds in the AFC, which makes it hard to see him passing Hurts or Mahomes. 

In fact, only a superhuman effort from another contender could spoil this two-man race, and the only quarterback capable of putting together that kind of four-game stretch is Josh Allen (+1800). An elbow injury and the stagnation of the Buffalo Bills offense have essentially crushed Allen’s NFL MVP hopes; however, the Bills are in first place in the AFC and Allen joins Hurts as the two best dual-threat quarterbacks in the league.

He’s thrown for 3,553 yards and 26 touchdowns, while also rushing for 628 yards and six touchdowns. That’s more passing yards and touchdowns than Hurts and just 60 fewer rushing yards. The biggest difference, aside from Hurts having more rushing touchdowns, is that Allen has thrown 11 interceptions. However, we know what Allen is capable of and with games coming up against Miami, Chicago, Cincinnati, and New England, he will have a chance to put up big numbers. A small bet on him to do so and steal the trophy could be a fun way to approach what seems like a boring NFL MVP race. 

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Josh Allen is falling back in the NFL MVP race
Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen (17) runs with the ball under pressure from Minnesota Vikings linebackers Eric Kendricks (54) and Patrick Jones II (91) in the second half of an NFL football game, Sunday, Nov. 13, 2022, in Orchard Park, N.Y. (AP Photo/Joshua Bessex)