We’re now less than a week away from watching the college football National Championship race kick-off.
On Saturday, both semi-final games will be on national television as everybody celebrates the end of 2022 and a fresh start in 2023. Which teams will emerge into 2023 feeling hopeful and excited for their chances at a title and which will end the year in heartbreak?
Below, we’ll break down the odds for the 2023 National Championship winner and dig deeper into whether there is any value to be on anybody to knock off last year’s champion Georgia Bulldogs or if you should just give in and bet the favorite.
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2023 College Football National Championship Odds
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook. Click here to see updated odds.
Georgia Bulldogs (-125)
As the defending national champions and current number one seed, it’s no surprise to see Georgia with far and away the best odds to win the title. They haven’t won a game by fewer than double digits since an October 1st win over Missouri, which was their only single-digit win of the entire season.
They beat Oregon by 46 to start the season and then beat LSU by 20 to win the SEC title and piled up double-digit wins in the weeks between.
The Bulldogs have the 8th-ranked offense in the nation, averaging 491.9 yards per game, led by the 17th-ranked rushing offense, averaging 207 yards per game. However, quarterback Stetson Bennett also leads a talented passing game that makes Georgia an incredibly balanced team.
They also have the best run defense in the nation, holding teams to just 77 yards per game. Given that’s how Michigan moves the ball most effectively, a national title showdown between the Bulldogs and Wolverines would seem to favor the defending champions. As a result, placing an early bet on Georgia to raise the trophy again does seem to make sense.
Michigan Wolverines (+290)
The Michigan Wolverines are back in the playoffs again despite flying under the radar for most of the year as many experts picked Big Ten rival Ohio State to emerge from the conference. However, Michigan throttled the Buckeyes in Columbus two weekends ago, winning 45-23, and then followed that up with a 21-point win over Purdue to secure back-to-back Big Ten titles and the No. 2 seed in the playoff.
Michigan has the 27th-ranked offense in the nation, averaging 453.5 yards per game. The majority of that success comes on the ground, where Michigan boasts the 5th-ranked run offense, averaging 243 yards per game on the ground. However, they will be without their star running back Blake Corum, who was on track to be a Heisman Trophy finalist before injuring his knee against Illinois in December and having season-ending surgery.
Michigan also boasts the 3rd-best run defense in the nation, and their success on the ground seems to make them a strong candidate to top TCU in the semi-final. That will allow them a chance for a rematch against Georgia, who knocked them out last year 34-11.
However, despite Michigan’s strong run defense, I’m not sure they have the firepower without Corum to topple the champs. It will likely be too much pressure on the shoulders of talented but inconsistent quarterback J.J. McCarthy.
Ohio State Buckeyes (+350)
Oho State seemed to be sailing into the National Championship race, but that quickly turned into a potential disaster after they got beaten at home by division-rival Michigan. That put the Buckeyes on the outside looking in for a spot in the Playoff; however, they got the help they needed with USC losing in the Pac-12 title game, allowing the one-loss Buckeyes to sneak into the 4th seed.
Ohio State has the 7th-ranked offense in the nation, averaging 492.7 yards per game, and most of that comes from a passing offense led by Heisman trophy finalist CJ Stroud, which averages 294.2 yards per game, good for 14th in the country. If the offense is clicking, they have a shot to take down Georgia, but the defense is going to have to play its best game of the season because it gave up far too many big plays against the Wolverines.
However, if you think Ohio State can beat Georgia (I don’t), I believe that makes a bet for Michigan more attractive as I think the Wolverines would beat the Buckeyes in a rematch for the National Championship.
TCU Horned Frogs (+1800)
The TCU Horned Frogs are the Cinderella story of the 2022 college football season. Led by Heisman Trophy finalist Max Duggan, TCU defied Vegas oddsmakers and kept an undefeated record until it lost an overtime heartbreaker to Kansas State in the Big 12 title game.
However, like Ohio State, losses by USC and Clemson (the week before) opened the door for TCU to sneak into the Playoff over a two-loss Alabama team. They will now have a chance to cap off their Cinderella story with a National Championship.
TCU has the 15th-ranked offense in the nation, averaging 473 yards per game. They have the 25th-ranked rushing offense at exactly 200 yards per game; however, their Achilles heel might be a run defense that ranks 67th in the nation and allows 149.5 yards per game. That could make it tough to beat Michigan and tough to recommend laying money on the Horned Frogs.
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