2024 NCAA Tournament: Odds, picks, how to watch every game of 1st Round

Two of the best sporting days of the year are on the horizon as the first round of the 2024 NCAA Tournament kicks off on Thursday afternoon. 

Let’s get you geared up for all 32 games with the latest schedule, odds, courtesy of DraftKings, and our predictions for each matchup.

Thursday, March 21

#8 Mississippi State vs. #9 Michigan State (12:15 p.m. ET, CBS)

• Spread: Michigan State -1 
• Mississippi St. Moneyline: +100
• Michigan St. Moneyline: -120
• Over/Under: 130.5
• Prediction: Mississippi State
• Why? The duo of guard Josh Hubbard and big man Tolu Smith prove too much for the Spartans, who struggled mightily against Purdue’s 7-foot star, Josh Edey in the Big 10 Tournament.

#6 BYU vs. #11 Duquesne (12:40 p.m., truTV)

• Spread: BYU -9.5 
• Duquesne Moneyline: +370
• BYU Moneyline: -485
• Over/Under: 142
• Prediction: BYU
• Why? It will not be easy considering Duquesne’s defense against three-pointers is one of the best in the country (29.5% vs. A-10 opponents) and BYU’s offense spends plenty of time beyond the arc. But the Cougars are a fast, chaotic team that should pull through.

#3 Creighton vs. #14 Akron (1:30 p.m., TNT)

• Spread: Creighton -12.5
• Akron Moneyline: +600
• Creighton Moneyline: -900
• Over/Under: 141
• Prediction: Creighton
• Why? The Blue Jays are an experienced, efficient NCAA Tournament team that has top-10 odds to win the national championship. Akron is making its second appearance in 10 years and its path to the Big Dance was not pretty through the MAC Tournament.

#2 Arizona vs. #15 Long Beach State (2 p.m., TBS)

• Spread: Arizona -20.5
• LBS Moneyline: +1500
• Arizona Moneyline: -3600
• Over/Under: 163.5
• Prediction: Arizona
• Why? Arizona has one of the best offenses in the nation that should be able to break through Long Beach State’s high-intensity defense with relative ease.

#1 North Carolina vs. #16 Wagner (2:45 p.m., CBS)

• Spread: North Carolina -24.5 
• Wagner Moneyline: +2000
• UNC Moneyline: -6502
• Over/Under: 133.5
• Prediction: North Carolina
• Why? North Carolina has had a history of struggling against NEC opponents at the NCAA Tournament, but they should have no problem against the Bronx’s Wagner. Reminder: New York residents cannot bet on March Madness games that feature New York-based schools.

#3 Illinois vs. #14 Morehead State (3:10 p.m., truTV)

• Spread: Illinois -11.5
• Morehead St. Moneyline: +575
• Illinois Moneyline: -850
• Over/Under: 147.5
• Prediction: Illinois
• Why? Illinois is clicking after winning the Big Ten Tournament. The Illini average 84.4 points per game this season and their adjusted offensive efficiency is No. 3 in the country.

#6 South Carolina vs. #11 Oregon (4 p.m., TNT)

• Spread: South Carolina -1.5 
• Oregon Moneyline: -105
• South Carolina Moneyline: -115
• Over/Under: 133
• Prediction: Oregon
• Why? This is just a bad matchup for South Carolina, which has a defense reliant on stopping the three-pointer. Oregon is not built that way as a strong interior team. They had to scramble to get into the tournament with key wins over Arizona and Colorado at the Pac-12 Tournament, so they know exactly what kind of desperation level is needed to start on the right foot.

#7 Dayton vs. #10 Nevada (4:30 p.m., TBS)

• Spread: Nevada -1 
• Nevada Moneyline: -120
• Dayton Moneyline: +100
• Over/Under: 136.5
• Prediction: Dayton
• Why? The Flyers can shoot the three with the best (29th in DI) of them and Nevada’s perimeter defense leaves an abundance to be desired (296th in 3-point defense). I don’t see Nevada keeping up with Dayton.

#7 Texas vs. #10 Colorado State (6:50 p.m., TNT)

• Spread: Texas -2.5
• CSU Moneyline: +124
• Texas Moneyline: -148
• Over/Under: 144
• Prediction: Colorado State
• Why? They put on a solid defensive showing in the First Four to punch their ticket into the Field of 64. Texas is a far tougher opponent with a No. 19 rating in KenPom offensive efficiency, but an efficient Colorado State fueled by interior scoring can pull off the upset with momentum from a win in a do-or-die game already this week in their pocket.

#3 Kentucky vs. #14 Oakland (7:10 p.m., CBS)

• Spread: Kentucky -13.5 
• Oakland Moneyline: +700
• Kentucky Moneyline: -1100
• Over/Under: 163.5
• Prediction: Kentucky
• Why? Is Kentucky a worthy 3-seed? Probably not. But they’ll play like one against an Oakland team whose defense ranks 165th in the nation.

#5 Gonzaga vs. #12 McNeese (7:25 p.m., TBS)

• Spread: Gonzaga -6.5 
• McNeese Moneyline: +225
• Gonzaga Moneyline: -278
• Over/Under: 150
• Prediction: Gonzaga
• Why? This is not the powerhouse Gonzaga from days of yore, but a slow, methodical offense should dissect McNeese without much issue. Especially when you look at the type of competition McNeese has had this year. Look at their out-of-conference schedule. It’s laughable.

#2 Iowa State vs. #15 South Dakota State (7:35 p.m., truTV)

• Spread: Iowa State -16
• SDSU Moneyline: +1000
• ISU Moneyline: -1800
• Over/Under: 135.5
• Prediction: Iowa State
• Why? Iowa State blew out No. 1 seed Houston by 28 in the Big 12 title game to help clinch a No. 2 seed at the NCAA Tournament. The Cyclones showed that they have an elite offense, but they should not expect another 28-point drubbing over South Dakota State. The Jackrabbits’ offense can light it up, too.

#2 Tennessee vs. #15 Saint Peter’s (9:20 p.m., TNT)

• Spread: Tennessee -21.5
• Saint Peter’s Moneyline: +1500
• Tennessee Moneyline: -3600
• Over/Under: 130
• Prediction: Tennessee
• Why? Another local school from Jersey City, Saint Peter’s will hope rekindle the magic that sparked a Cinderella run in the NCAA Tournament two years ago, becoming the first No. 15 seed ever to make the Elite Eight. This year, it is likely they will not see the second round as Tennessee has been sitting on an embarrassing first-round exit from the SEC Tournament where it lost to Mississippi State by 17.

#6 Texas Tech vs. #11 NC State (9:40 p.m., CBS)

• Spread: Texas Tech -5
• NC State Moneyline: +180
• Texas Tech Moneyline: -218
• Over/Under: 145.5
• Prediction: Texas Tech
• Why? NC State has plenty of momentum thanks to a miraculous run to the Big Dance which featured five wins in five days at the ACC Tournament. But Texas Tech has Chance McMillian and Kerwin Walton — two of the top three-point shooters in the nation — and the Wolfpack’s perimeter defense simply is not good enough.

#4 Kansas vs. #13 Samford (9:55 p.m., TBS)

• Spread: Kansas -7
• Samford Moneyline: +230
• Kansas Moneyline: -285
• Over/Under: 152.5
• Prediction: Samford
• Why? It is hard to imagine a blueblood program like Kansas crashing out of the NCAA Tournament as a No. 4 seed in the first round. However, they are without their leading scorer, Kevin McCullar Jr. and they are playing a Samford team that averages 86 points per game this season behind a 49.25% rate from the field and a three-point conversation rate of nearly 40%.

#7 Washington State vs. #10 Drake (10:05 p.m., truTV)

• Spread: Drake -1
• Drake Moneyline: -122
• WSU Moneyline: +102
• Over/Under: 137.5
• Prediction: Washington State
• Why? Drake is a popular pick here, but Washington State has the fundamentals and the tenacity to get past its mid-major opponent. Watch for a major discrepancy on the offensive boards to fuel the Cougars past Drake. 

Friday, March 22

#8 Florida Atlantic vs. #9 Northwestern (12:15 p.m., CBS)

• Spread: FAU -2.5 
• Northwestern Moneyline: +124
• FAU Moneyline: -148
• Over/Under: 142
• Prediction: Florida Atlantic
• Why? The speed of Florida Atlantic will be the key to get past a Northwestern team that likes to play at a significantly slower pace.

#3 Baylor vs. #14 Colgate (12:40 p.m., truTV)

• Spread: Baylor -13.5
• Colgate Moneyline: +775
• Baylor Moneyline: -1400
• Over/Under: 137.5
• Prediction: Baylor
• Why? The Bears are the better, deeper team, but Colgate’s defense should make this a good one. Reminder: New York residents cannot bet on March Madness games that feature New York-based schools.

#5 San Diego State vs. #12 UAB (1:45 p.m., TNT)

• Spread: SDSU -7
• UAB Moneyline: +225
• SDSU Moneyline: -278
• Over/Under: 139
• Prediction: Baylor
• Why? The optics surrounding UAB are not good. Their defense is not great and their three-point shooting is not much better. San Diego State should have a relatively easy time, especially on the boards.

#2 Marquette vs. #15 Western Kentucky (2 p.m., TBS)

• Spread: Marquette -14.5
• WKU Moneyline: +800
• Marquette Moneyline: -1350
• Over/Under: 159
• Prediction: Marquette
• Why? This will be the first time this season that Western Kentucky will face a top-25 team, and we don’t see it going very well for them. Marquette forces a ton of turnovers and the Hilltoppers are prone to giving the ball away plenty.

#1 UConn vs. #16 Stetson (2:45 p.m., CBS)

• Spread: UConn -26.5
• Stetson Moneyline: +2200
• UConn Moneyline: -8000
• Over/Under: 145.5
• Prediction: UConn
• Why? The reigning national champions are likely going to steamroll Stetson, hence the ridiculous spread. UConn has won seven straight and is not slowing down any time soon.

#6 Clemson vs. #11 New Mexico (3:10 p.m. truTV)

• Spread: New Mexico -2.5
• New Mexico Moneyline: -142
• Clemson Moneyline: +120
• Over/Under: 145.5
• Prediction: New Mexico
• Why? New Mexico is a fun sleeper pick that we’ll go with in the first round. They’re also the lowest-seeded favorite. They are a deep team (eight players average more than 17 minutes per game) and have an imposing big man in Nelly Junior Joseph who could keep up with Clemson’s PJ Hall.

#4 Auburn vs. #13 Yale (4:15 p.m., TNT)

• Spread: Auburn -13
• Yale Moneyline: +550
• Auburn Moneyline: -800
• Over/Under: 140.5
• Prediction: Auburn
• Why? Yale narrowly escaped an embarrassing loss in the Ivy League Final against a 13-17 Brown team. There is little faith in that team putting up a consistent fight against Auburn.

#7 Florida vs. #10 TDB (4:30 p.m., TBS)

• Florida will play the winner of the Boise State/Colorado First Four matchup

#8 Nebraska vs. #9 Texas A&M (6:50 p.m., TNT)

• Spread: Nebraska -1
• Texas A&M Moneyline: -108
• Nebraska Moneyline: -112
• Over/Under: 147
• Prediction: Nebraska
• Why? The drought ends for Nebraska, who wins its first-ever NCAA Tournament game behind a more efficient, deeper offense.

#4 Duke vs. #13 Vermont (7:10 p.m., CBS)

• Spread: Duke -12
• Vermont Moneyline: +525
• Duke Moneyline: -750
• Over/Under: 132.5
• Prediction: Duke
• Why? Vermont can’t score efficiently nor can it cause an abundance of turnovers. That is a bad recipe for an upset. We’ll take Duke despite a late-season bobble.

#1 Purdue vs. #16 TDB (7:25 p.m., TBS)

• Purdue will pay the winner of the Montana State/Grambling State First Four matchup

#4 Alabama vs. #13 College of Charleston (7:35 p.m., truTV)

• Spread: Alabama -9.5
• CoC Moneyline: +370
• Alabama Moneyline: -485
• Over/Under: 173.5
• Prediction: UConn
• Why? Beware of the College of Charleston because the CAA school has been known to put up big offensive numbers. But Alabama’s attack is more proven and has done it on larger stages, which makes the difference here.

#1 Houston vs. #16 Longwood (9:20 p.m., TNT)

• Spread: Houston -24.5
• Longwood Moneyline: +2000
• Houston Moneyline: -6500
• Over/Under: 128
• Prediction: Houston
• Why? Houston lost out on a No. 1 seed after getting beaten down by Iowa State, but they still are a force to be reckoned with. Expect their staunch defense to stifle lowly Longwood.

#5 Wisconsin vs. #12 James Madison (9:40 p.m., CBS)

• Spread: Wisconsin -5
• JMU Moneyline: +185
• Wisconsin Moneyline: -225
• Over/Under: 145
• Prediction: Wisconsin
• Why? James Madison will be a popular upset pick — there is always one 12-over-5 upset at the Big Dance — but you should be hesitant to go with this one. Of JMU’s 31 wins this season, 22 have come in Quad 4 games. Their offense might surprise Wisconsin early, but the Badgers should be able to keep up just fine.

#8 Utah State vs. #9 TCU (9:55 p.m., TBS)

• Spread: TCU -4
• Utah State Moneyline: +154
• TCU Moneyline: -185
• Over/Under: 150.5
• Prediction: Utah State
• Why? This was the toughest one for us to pick and we’re going with Utah State simply because TCU might not have a 100% Emmanuel Miller. Great Osobor could have a big game for the Aggies to get them through to the second round.

#5 Saint Mary’s vs. #12 Grand Canyon (10:05, truTV)

• Spread: Saint Mary’s -5.5
• Grand Canyon Moneyline: +190
• Saint Mary’s Moneyline: -230
• Over/Under: 131.5
• Prediction: Saint Mary’s
• Why? Saint Mary’s has more experience at the NCAA Tournament and because of that, should be able to dictate the pace a bit better. They should slow down Grand Canyon and turn this into a low-scoring game. 

For more on the 2024 NCAA Tournament, visit AMNY.com