MLB Best Bets for Tuesday, April 11th

The 2023 MLB season is off and running and so are our daily best bets.

In this MLB best bets column, we’re going to look at a few plays that we think are most advantageous for the day. We’ll pick one moneyline or run line bet, one run total or over/under bet, and one pitching strikeout prop bet that we believe you should target.

Obviously, you should only bet what you’re comfortable losing and it you’re new to betting on baseball, you should read our Beginner’s Guide to Betting with a glossary of terms and check out our sign-up deals at the bottom of the article.

MLB Best Bets, April 11th

All odds are courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook, click here to see up-to-date odds

Best MLB Moneyline/Run Line Bet

Rangers -1.5 against Royals (-135)

This one starts with the pitching matchup. It’s Jacob deGrom versus Jordan Lyles. You’re not going to find too many bigger gaps in overall talent level. deGrom has looked like his old self early in the season and the Royals have the league’s lowest batting average at .179 through 11 games. They’ve also struck out the third-most times with 102 through those 11 games, which is bad news when facing deGrom.

While the Rangers’ offense hasn’t been clicking, they have more than enough talent in Corey Seager, Adolis Garcia, Nathaniel Lowe, and company to take advantage of Jordan Lyles, who has a 4.91 ERA and 1.64 HR/9 through his first two starts.

ML/Run Line Season Record: 1-1

Best MLB Run Total Bet

Nationals/Angels OVER 8 runs (-120)

I know you’re going to look at this bet and think, “Shohei Ohtani is pitching. Why are we betting the over?” and I get that logic. However, the Nationals have been sneaky good to start the year, ranking 6th in all of baseball with a .274 batting average. They don’t hit for any kind of power, but they make consistent contact (5th-fewest strikeouts) and have good team speed. I think they can put up a few runs here.

On the other side, we have Josiah Gray, who got lit up in his first start but then pitched well in Coors Field. MLB action is crazy sometimes. I think the Angles’ offense is going to be able to take advantage of his home run issues here and send a few over the fence. As a result, it wouldn’t surprise me if this game was 6-3 or 7-3 Angels when all is said and done.

Run Total Season Record: 1-1

The Angels are an MLB best bet — Los Angeles Angels’ Mike Trout (27) returns to the dugout after scoring off of a single hit by Luis Rengifo during the first inning of a baseball game against the Washington Nationals in Anaheim, Calif., Monday, April 10, 2023. Hunter Renfroe also scored. (AP Photo/Ashley Landis)

Best Pitcher Strikeout Prop Bet

Grayson Rodriguez OVER 4.5 strikeouts (-170)

Jesus Luzardo OVER 6.5 strikeouts (-150)

Yeah, this is just too low for Grayson Rodriguez. He’s one of the best pitching prospects in all of baseball, if not the best, and is facing an Oakland offense that averages just over nine strikeouts per game. Rodriguez struck out five in five innings in his debut against the Rangers, so repeating that seems entirely likely.

However, the juice is a little high here at -170, so I wanted to give you another option.

Jesus Luzardo has been killing it to start the year with a 0.71 ERA and 15 strikeouts in his first 12.2 innings pitched. He now faces a beat-up Phillies lineup that has to consistently start Edmundo Sosa. Yes, there is some talent still in the lineup, but the Phillies also have the 9th-most strikeouts in MLB so far and are averaging 9.8 per game. I think Luzardo can get seven in six-plus innings tonight.

Strikeout Prop Season Record: 2-0