MLB Best Bets for Monday, April 3rd

The 2023 MLB season has kicked off with a weekend full of stolen bases and solid betting action.

In our daily MLB best bets column, we’re going to look at a few plays that we think are most advantageous for the day. We’ll pick one moneyline or run line bet, one run total or over/under bet, and one pitching strikeout prop bet that we believe you should target.

Obviously, you should only bet what you’re comfortable losing and it you’re new to betting on baseball, you should read our Beginner’s Guide to Betting with a glossary of terms and check out our sign-up deals at the bottom of the article.

MLB Best Bets, April 3rd

All odds are courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook, click here to see up-to-date odds

Best Moneyline/Run Line Bet

Dodgers -1.5 against Colorado Rockies (+100)

Our model has the Dodgers favored by 3.02 runs tonight, so that immediately draws our attention.

Los Angeles is averaging five runs per game in the early going in 2023 after facing a strong Arizona Diamondbacks team (minus the Madison Bumgarner start). We think they should have a fairly easy time with Ryan Feltner, who had a 5.83 ERA last year with only a 19.6% strikeout rate. That’s going to be a tough needle to thread against this Dodgers offense.

On the other side, Los Angeles will go with rookie Michael Grove, who made his MLB debut last year. He looked strong in spring training and is one of their top pitching prospects, so Grove should be able to keep this Rockies offense from putting up too many runs. Given what we think the Dodgers can accomplish on offense, that makes us feel good about the run line, which is rare since run line bets can normally be tricky.

Best Run Total Bet

Cubs/Reds OVER 9 runs (-105).

Great American Ballpark is one of MLB’s best parks for offense. In fact, it ranks second in park factors for offense in the entire league over the last three years, trailing only Coors Field. So when you have an extreme offensive environment and two mediocre MLB pitchers in Drew Smyly and Conner Overton, it’s a game you want to target.

Especially since there have been solid additions to both of these lineups in the offseason with Chicago adding Dansby Swanson and Trey Mancini and the Reds adding Wil Myers, getting a healthy Jake Fraley, and also calling up intriguing prospects Will Benson and Spencer Steer.

Our model has this game predicted for 10.64 runs, which is the biggest difference on the MLB slate when compared to what Vegas has.

The Cubs game is an MLB best bet — Chicago Cubs second baseman Nico Hoerner celebrates with Cubs’ Miles Mastrobuoni after scoring on a single by Chicago Cubs shortstop Dansby Swanson during the third inning of a baseball game against the Milwaukee Brewers Thursday, March 30, 2023, in Chicago. (AP Photo/Erin Hooley)

Best Pitcher Strikeout Prop Bet

Drew Rasmussen OVER 4.5 strikeouts (+105)

This feels a little disrespectful to Rasmussen, who has been a really solid starter for Tampa Bay since they converted him from a reliever after trading for him. Last year he had a 2.84 ERA in 24 starts while compiling a 7.71 strikeout per nine ratio.

Now, that may be what’s holding him back here. If Rasmussen averages around eight K/9 and is only likely to throw five innings, then it makes this bet a bit risky; however, I’m really not high on the Washington offense overall. They hit just .211 in their opening series against the Braves and while they didn’t strike out a lot, it should be noted that the Braves threw a rookie in Jared Shuster and a bullpen game when Max Fried got hurt early on Opening Day. Spencer Strider, meanwhile, struck out nine Nationals in six innings.

Now, Rasmussen is not Strider, but I think striking out five guys in five innings is well within his wheelhouse and that would allow us to hit this bet at plus-odds, which we love.