The Milwaukee Brewers are three games up on the St. Louis Cardinals in the NL Central. Normally that means going into the MLB Trade Deadline looking to acquire big-name talent. Instead, the Brewers traded away arguably their biggest star, sending closer Josh Hader to the San Diego Padres.
However, despite how this deal appears on the surface, Milwaukee is certainly not punting on the 2022 season and might have actually helped their team in the short term and long term.
According to Jeff Passan, the return for Hader was three MLB-ready players and a long-term pitching prospect:
The return on Josh Hader to Milwaukee is significant: left-handed closer Taylor Rogers, lefty pitching prospect Robert Gasser, outfielder Esteury Ruiz and right-hander Dinelson Lamet, sources tell ESPN. Hader will be a free agent after the 2023 season.
— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) August 1, 2022
From the San Diego side of the deal, the argument is clear: they’re trying to win the World Series and Taylor Rogers had started to struggle of late with a 9.31 ERA over the last month, including three blown saves. The Padres, who are likely to get back star shortstop Fernando Tatis in a few weeks, wanted more security at the end of games.
Josh Hader has been among the most secure options over the last few years. Since becoming the full-time closer in 2018, Hader has been electric, producing 113 saves, a 2.59 ERA, .152 average against, and a 45.1% strikeout rate from 2019 now.
However, like Rogers, Hader has not been himself of late. The lefty has a 12.54 ERA over the last month with an elevated 10% walk rate and one blown save. Perhaps Milwaukee was worried that there were some long-term issues. Perhaps they were concerned about paying him close to $15 million next year, which is likely what he would have earned in his final year of arbitration, and then he would have been a year away from free agency.
The Brewers decided to take a big return for him now instead of waiting.
That may have been driven by the faith the team has in current 8th-inning man Devin Williams. While Hader gets a lot of the attention, Devin Williams has been almost equally as good. Since bursting onto the scene for 13.2 innings in 2019, Williams has posted a 1.94 ERA, .172 batting average against, and a 39.9% strikeout rate. He has the arsenal that would make him a really solid closer.
If the Brewers felt that the downgrade from Hader to Williams wasn’t too steep then getting Taylor Rogers, Esteury Ruiz, and Robert Gasser in addition would have seemed too good to pass up.
Despite Rogers’ struggles, over the same span from 2019-now Rogers has posted a 3.42 ERA and 2.45 average against with a 31.1% strikeout rate. Over his entire career, he has also held left-handers to a .203 batting average, which could make him an ideal 8th inning option and left-handed complement to Williams to keep Milwaukee’s bullpen solid for this season.
Gasser and Ruiz then also immediately become among the top prospects in the Brewers organization.
LHP Robert Gasser will enter the Brewers’ MLB Pipeline Top 30 prospects list at No. 8 and OF Esteury Ruiz will be No. 9, I’m told.
— Adam McCalvy (@AdamMcCalvy) August 1, 2022
Gasser is a little bit further away since he’s still in High-A, but Ruiz could actually serve as the Brewers’ centerfielder for the rest of the season since the team moved on from Lorenzo Cain. In 77 games across Double-A and Triple-A this season, Ruiz hit .333 with 13 home runs, 46 RBI, 84 runs, and 60 stolen bases. Yes, 60!
If Milwaukee is able to turn Dinelson Lamet into another pitching development success story for this organization, we could be looking at this as quite a haul for the Brewers in a couple of years.
Until then, we’re seeing a likely playoff-bound team try to lengthen their competitive window, and might just get to see Josh Hader save games against his old team in the postseason. Sounds like a win-win.
