March Madness 2024 in the Book: Predicting ‘Big 6’ conference tournament champions

March Madness is officially underway and while the mid-major conference tournaments are well underway — some even punching their ticket to the NCAA Tournament already — the national powers take center stage. With Selection Sunday now less than a week away, the big six conferences begin their tournaments this week, which could have a major impact on bubble teams and bid stealers. Let’s take a look and predict the big six winners and a long shot from the best week of the college basketball season.

ACC

• Favorite: North Carolina (+150)
• Pick: North Carolina (+150)
• Long Shot: Wake Forest (+900)

The ACC has seemingly been a two-horse race all season between North Carolina and Duke. After the Tar Heels delivered a beat down on Duke’s home court on Saturday, it seems that it is UNC’s conference to lose. The Tar Heels went 17-3 in conference play this year and by the time their first tournament game tips off on Thursday, it will be over a month since their last loss. With RJ Davis, Armando Bacot, and Cormac Ryan all able to score at multiple levels, the Tar Heels are not only a good choice to win the ACC Tournament but to make a deep run in March, too.

The Demon Deacons of Wake Forest have flown under the radar in the ACC after a 3-5 stretch to end conference play. While one of those wins came against Duke, some of the losses came at the hands of Georgia Tech, Notre Dame, and Virginia Tech — all teams who are below Wake Forest in the standings. That being said, Wake Forest has shown at times they could beat anyone this year when they are at their best. They will have a difficult path to get there, but as a long shot, I would not count the Demon Deacons out.

Big 12

• Favorite: Houston (-135)
• Pick: Iowa State (+280)
• Long Shot: BYU (+1500)

While Houston has separated itself from the pack in the Big 12 and is the top dog in the conference, we have already seen upsets of No. 1 seeds in a multitude of conferences. An odds-on favorite in Houston provides little value with how unpredictable March can be, especially in conference tournaments where teams are facing off for the third time this year. 

Iowa State was 13-5 in conference play this year, going undefeated on their home court. The Cyclones have shown they can beat teams in a variety of ways, whether it is locking down on the defensive end or relying on offensive firepower from Keshon Gilbert and Milan Momcilovic. Iowa State has already beat Houston once this year and with a Big 12 Championship on the line, the Cyclones should not be counted out with a +280 value.

BYU on the other hand relies on offensive firepower the Big 12 has never seen before. The Cougars have the 12th-ranked offense in the country in terms of Kenpom rating while winning games against Iowa State and on the road at Kansas. More than half the Cougars’ field goal attempts come from behind the arc, meaning a couple of hot shooting days could propel BYU into contention for the Big 12 title.   

Pac-12

• Favorite: Arizona (-160)
• Pick: Arizona (-160)
• Long Shot: USC (+3000)

While we just talked about not favoring an odds-on favorite, the Arizona Wildcats have been head and shoulders above their competition this year in the Pac-12. While they lost their regular-season finale to the USC Trojans, I believe this only helps the Wildcats in the long run as they look to avenge their early exit from the NCAA Tournament last season. With UNC transfer Caleb Love at the point and Oumar Bello down low, Arizona poses a versatile attack that can beat you in a variety of ways, showing why they are the favorite in the Pac-12.

The USC Trojans, finally have gotten healthy and are playing their best basketball at the right time. After beating Arizona on Saturday, USC has now gone 5-2 to end conference play with one of those losses being in double overtime against Colorado. While the Trojans will have a difficult road ahead of them, needing to win four games in four days, they have put the Pac-12 on notice for a potential Cinderella run.  

Big East

• Favorite: UConn (-135)
• Pick: UConn (-135)
• Long Shot: Marquette (+500)

Make no mistake about it, the Big East is the UConn Huskies to lose. The No. 1 team in the country and defending national champions seem to be following a similar blueprint to last season, only more dominant. The Huskies have only lost one game since the calendar flipped to 2024 and have seemingly gotten stronger every game. It would be foolish to bet against Dan Hurley and his team this time of year.

If you believe anyone can knock off UConn at MSG this week, the Marquette Golden Eagles should be at the top of that list. Marquette had a rough end to Big East play, dropping games to Creighton and UConn. However, that was without First-Team All-Big-East player Tyler Kolek, who was out due to injury. With Kolek expected to return for the tournament, the Golden Eagles are dark horses for the Big East crown.

Big Ten

• Favorite: Purdue (+100)
• Pick: Illinois (+300)
• Long Shot: Wisconsin (+1500)

While Zach Edey and the Purdue Boilermakers are on a quest to avenge their loss to a 16-seed in the NCAA Tournament last year, they have run through their competition in Big Ten play. What was thought to be one of the strongest conferences in basketball last year has been underwhelming this season with only Purdue being legitimate National Championship contenders. 

Although in the Big Ten tournament, the Illinois Fighting Illini have a chance to avenge their two regular-season losses to the Boilermakers where they lost by a two-possession margin each time. Illinois has size with stretch wings in Marcus Domask and Quincy Guerrier to cause problems for any opposing team. Add in the play of Terrance Shannon Jr. on the perimeter and the Fighting Illini have the talent to contend and beat any Big Ten team.

The Wisconsin Badgers got off to a blazing start in Big Ten play this year but have come down to earth considerably in the back half of conference play. Greg Gard’s squad went 3-8 over their last 11 Big Ten games and all signs point to the Badgers being a single-digit seed on upset watch in the NCAA Tournament. However, Wisconsin has shown they can catch lightning in a bottle before and get hot at the right time. Gard’s spectacular coaching abilities could be enough to lift the Badgers and get some momentum going into the big dance.

SEC

• Favorite: Tennessee (+140)
• Pick: Kentucky (+400)
• Long Shot: South Carolina (+6000)

There are clear levels to the SEC this year. At times, it seems as though the Tennessee Volunteers are on their own but they have been unable to pull away from the pack with the Alabama Crimson Tide, the Kentucky Wildcats, and the Auburn Tigers. This is by far the conference tournament I am most excited for as it is guaranteed to bring March Madness.

Kentucky is my choice to take the SEC because of the value at +400 and the immense amount of talent they have on their team. Every year it seems that the top talent prevails in March and you will be hard-pressed to find a team with more individual talent than the Wildcats. Rob Dillingham is one of the best guards in the nation and has played himself into being a top lottery pick in the next NBA Draft. Not to be overlooked is his teammate Reed Sheppard who is also a likely lottery pick. The biggest Achilles heel that continues to hold Kentucky back though is their defense. While the Wildcats have the number sixth-ranked offense in the nation, their defense is ranked 93rd in Kenpom and they have struggled with consistency on that end of the basketball.

A long shot that could get hot at the right time is the South Carolina Gamecocks. South Carolina went 13-5 in conference play this year with big wins against Kentucky, Tennessee, Florida, and Mississippi State. The Gamecocks have shown they can beat any team on any given night, making them the perfect dark horse candidate in the SEC.

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