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MLB free picks and best bets for August 3rd

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Dodgers celebrate an MLB win
Los Angeles Dodgers’ Max Muncy, right, celebrates after hitting a two-run home run that scored Jake Lamb (18) during the second inning of a baseball game against the San Francisco Giants in San Francisco, Monday, Aug. 1, 2022. (AP Photo/Jeff Chiu)

Welcome to the Daily Dish, where we give you our MLB best bets for the day.

Below you’ll find the games our betting model thinks give you the best chance at betting wins for the day. This means we won’t just give you the bets most likely to win but those that will win at odds that make it worth betting. We could tell you that a -235 favorite will win, but if you have to bet $235 just to win $100, that’s not a smart bet. 

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MLB Best Bets for August 3rd

MLB Best Bets

Sitting 8-4-1 through two days, which is pretty solid. We’re still coming out of the MLB trade deadline madness so you’re going to see some crazy high odds that we don’t want to bet on (like the Mets yesterday). As a result, we only have a few picks today. 

The only ML play is TOR (-119). I’m still not quite sure how the odds are this low against a Tampa Bay team that is really fairly average. Yes, Yusei Kikuchi is pitching today but Ryan Yarbrough hasn’t been much better. Our model has the Blue Jays favored by 1.04 runs, so we’ll take the ML at these odds here. 

Two runline bets I think are the best bets are MIL -1.5 (-130) and the Mets -1.5 (-151). The -151 for the is right at the edge of playable for me, but I have to envision this Mets offense will show up in a way they didn’t last night. They are so vastly superior to this Nationals team. The Brewers also have a big advantage, or should, over the Pirates and our model has them favored by 2.11 runs. 

The other plays I like today are all over/unders. Going U 8 CHC/STL (-104)  seems like one of the best bets to the model. We played it, and hit it, last night, so we’ll go back to the well again here. Justin Steele has been pretty good for the Cubs, and Miles Mikolas is having a career year. Our model has this at 6.74 total runs, so I love the play here. I also like O 7.5 in LAD/SF (-107) since our model sees this as a 8.78 total run total. The model has the Dodgers scoring almost five and a half runs off Alex Cobb on their own, which means the Giants have very little lifting to do to get us over the hump. 

Lastly, I like O 8 BAL/TEX (-106). I was wrong on Baltimore coming out flat without Trey Mancini, but the injury to Jon Gray was also a brutal blow. I have more confidence in the Rangers here tonight because of Martin Perez, but Perez is due for regression and Kyle Bradish has really not been great for Baltimore. The model sees this at 8.94 total runs, so it’s a little tight, but I like the play at these odds. 

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Baltimore celebrates an MLB win
Baltimore Orioles shortstop Jorge Mateo, center, and Anthony Santander, right, celebrate in the dugout after Mateo hit a two-run home run in the ninth inning of a baseball game against the Texas Rangers, Tuesday, Aug. 2, 2022, in Arlington, Texas. The shot also scored Terrin Vavra. (AP Photo/Tony Gutierrez)

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