2023 NFL Divisional Round preview: How to watch, storylines, odds, more

After an eventful first week of playoff matchups, the divisional-round games are set. The one-seeds are coming off their bye week and we will see firsthand if the rest vs. rust debate rings true. The race to the Lombardi Trophy is coming down to the wire, and it’s time to see who is the most prepared when it matters most.

(4) Houston Texans vs. (1) Baltimore Ravens

• Spread: Ravens -9
• Date: Saturday, January 20
• Time: 4:30 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN, ABC

Much like last week, the Houston Texans will lead off action as the first game on the divisional round slate. Instead this time, they will be facing a much more formidable opponent in MVP candidate Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens. Although, CJ Stroud and the explosive Texans offense will be facing a statistically worse defense than last week. Stroud has shown his ability to hang in the pocket and deliver throws into tight windows that prove difficult for even some veteran quarterbacks.

The Ravens were the sixth-ranked pass defense in terms of yards per game this season, allowing 191.9 yards per game. Stroud showed defensive rankings were no problem for him last week as he dealt with the No. 1 pass defense in the regular season in the Cleveland Browns just fine. The Ravens also had a worse run defense than the Browns in the regular season, meaning Stroud and the Texans’ offense will need to carry the load and keep the pressure off the Texans defense.

There is no denying the Ravens have high expectations coming into this game. After stumbling out of the gate, Baltimore has won 10 out of their last 12 games, with one of those losses coming in Week 18 when their bye was already secured. Next to the Buffalo Bills, the Ravens have the most momentum in the NFL right now and there are no signs of slowing down.

Baltimore poses a much more explosive offense than the Texans dealt with last week. An injury-riddled Browns team on their fourth quarterback of the season is the polar opposite of the threats this Ravens team presents. A dynamic, MVP candidate QB in Jackson will not make the same mistakes Joe Flacco did last week. 

This matchup will come down to the Texans’ defense and whether or not they can get stops to get the ball back in the hands of Stroud as they did so successfully last week. Baltimore was the sixth-best offense in the NFL this year, while the Browns were the 16th-best in terms of yards per game. The Ravens average five more points per game than Cleveland and have more explosive weapons all over the field.

I think the nine-point spread is a bit too hefty after what the Texans showed last week. I believe the Ravens will ultimately win this game, but Houston will keep it to a one-score contest for most of the afternoon. 

(7) Green Bay Packers vs. (1) San Francisco 49ers

• Spread: 49ers -9.5
• Date: Saturday, January 20
• Time: 8:15 p.m.
• TV: Fox

After trouncing the Cowboys last weekend, the road does not get any easier for Jordan Love and the Green Bay Packers. Now facing off against a team with a much more proven playoff track record, they will need to bring their very best to the West Coast.

On the other hand, the 49ers should be on high alert after what transpired in Dallas on Sunday. This Packers team has shown they can get off to hot starts no matter how hostile the environment they enter.

While the Packers’ defense was able to smother Dallas last week, they face a much more formidable opponent in San Francisco this week. The 49ers had the second-most yards per game in the regular season and have weapons galore at every position. A lot of the stress was taken off of the Packers’ defense last week after jumping out to a 27-0 lead, so they have yet to be put to the test in the playoffs so far. 

With the 49ers being a much more complete team than Dallas, Love will also have his work cut out for him on the offensive side of the ball. San Francisco has shown an affinity for feasting on inexperienced quarterbacks, and head coach Kyle Shanahan will have schemes to slow down Love and the offense compared to last week.

For San Francisco, they should use the Cowboys as a cautionary tale on how not to come into a playoff game with your season on the line. Dallas allowed Green Bay to dictate the tempo from the start and grabbed firm control of the game before the Cowboys knew what was happening.

Shanahan will have his crew much more prepared and the offense will look much more prepared than what Dak Prescott and the Cowboys displayed. Christian McCaffrey will prove to be more of a threat than any of the Cowboys’ weapons last week. Alongside Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk, it is hard to imagine the Packers thwarting the offensive firepower San Francisco possesses. With Trent Williams protecting QB Brock Purdy, it will be tougher for Green Bay to get home and apply pressure like they were able to do so often against Dallas.

I think the adjustment from playing Dallas to the 49ers will ultimately be the downfall of the Packers and their Cinderella run will come to an end. The 49ers will set the tone early and rely on a heavy dose of McCaffrey to control the tempo of the game and lead them to another NFC Championship game berth.

(4) Tampa Bay Buccaneers at  (3) Detroit Lions

• Spread: Lions -6.5
• Date: Sunday, January 21
• Time: 3:00 p.m.
• TV: NBC

After rejoicing over their first playoff win in over 30 years, the Lions are back in action in front of the Detroit faithful again on Sunday, this time with a trip to the NFC Championship on the line. 

Facing off against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers for the second time this year, the Lions will look to dominate like the first time they met in Week 6. Detroit dominated on the road in this matchup, holding the Buccaneers to under 300 total yards. While both teams have certainly grown and improved since then, Detroit has shown they can make clutch plays when it matters most.

Tampa Bay dealt with very little stress and pressure against Philadelphia last week as they controlled the tempo from the start and imposed their will until the Eagles folded. With how much Tampa Bay relies on their run game to open up opportunities for QB Baker Mayfield, the stout Lions defense will surely aim to shut that down. 

Given how the Lions dominated that first matchup on the road, it is hard to imagine much changes in this rematch with the momentum and heart Detroit is currently playing with. The Bucs have yet to play in a playoff environment like Detroit and Dan Campbell has shown he has a scheme to shut down Mayfield and his offense.

For the Lions, they will need to avoid beating themselves and turning the ball over. Any self-inflicted wounds will keep Tampa Bay in the game and give them a chance to hang around in the game. Jared Goff needs to set the tone for Detroit from the start and show why they belong in the NFC Championship.

I give the edge to Detroit in this game given they are a more complete team that has been battle-tested throughout the season. Tampa Bay has fought hard to get into this position, but it is the Lions’ time to shine on the biggest stage they have seen in the 21st century.

(3) Kansas City Chiefs vs. (2) Buffalo Bills

• Spread: Bills -2.5
• Date: Sunday, January 21
• Time: 6:30 p.m.
• TV: CBS

While all the other games have teams favored by a touchdown or more, this game is the crown jewel of the weekend as it gives us another chapter in the rivalry between Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen. Both the Chiefs and Bills dominated their opponents on Wild Card weekend to get to this spot, which is unfamiliar for the Chiefs.

For the first time in Mahomes’ career, he will experience a true road playoff game in Buffalo. Although this will not be the first time the Chiefs have dealt with the Bills mafia this year as the Bills and Chiefs matchup earlier in the season sparked Buffalo’s current six-game win streak.

In that first matchup, Allen and Mahomes were not the major storylines of the game as, surprisingly, each quarterback threw for less than 275 yards. Allen was ultimately able to lead a winning drive with the game tied at 17 which led to a field goal to give the Bills the edge. The defenses were the difference maker as Buffalo forced two Kansas City turnovers to thwart the explosive offense. 

With each team coming off big wins at home against inferior opponents, this is the playoff matchup we have been waiting for all season. Both Allen and Mahomes have thrown career-highs in interceptions this season, meaning whoever can take care of the ball will most likely come away with a win.

I believe this will be far and away the best game of the divisional round and will add another storied chapter in the Mahomes and Allen rivalry. This game will be about doing the small things right and proving which one of these teams is a real championship contender. Whoever has the ball last will ultimately win the game, and I give the edge to Allen and the Buffalo Bills.

Odds courtesy of DraftKings. For more, click here. 

For more on the NFL Divisional Round, visit AMNY.com