While tennis season has officially started already, the 2023 Australian Open is the unofficial kickoff as the sport’s first Grand Slam tournament of the year. The top players have arrived in Melbourne with the hopes of starting their season off with a bang, and the tournament kicks off at 7pm ET Sunday, so who should you be betting on?
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Novak Djokovic has been allowed back into the country for this year’s tournament and will enter as the betting favorite, but hometown fan-favorite Nick Kyrgios will be looking to capitalize on 2022, which was the best year ever for the talented Aussie.
Below I’ll walk you through some of my best bets for the 2023 Australian Open. A key here is that I will be focusing on two main types of bets you can place (odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
- Quarter Winner: This is the player that wins their section of the bracket. This means advancing to the semi-final.
- Outright winner: The player who wins the entire tournament
2023 Australian Open Men’s Best Bets and Picks
Novak Djokovic: (-110) to Win the Australian Open
This is your best if you’re looking for the most likely one to hit. Novak Djokovic is -360 to win his quarter, so you don’t want to place that bet at those odds since you stand to gain very little.
The only thing that has stopped Djokovic lately is his refusal to get the COVID vaccine. He won the most titles on tour last season despite only playing in 14 tournaments. He also won the tune-up tournament in Adelaide, beating Daniil Medvedev and Denis Shapalov before topping American Sebastian Korda in the finals.
When he’s on his game, as he currently is, there are few who can beat Novak.
Daniil Medvedev: (+110) to win his quarter
This bet is as much about Medvedev and how great he is in quick conditions, as it is about my lack of faith in Rafael Nadal.
Nadal has lost two straight matches and also gets a brutal round one draw against Jack Draper in round one. Draper is a 21-year-old Englishman who’s ranked 40th in the world and climbing. If Nadal is able to survive that battle, then a quarter-finals matchup with Frances Tiafoe, who knocked him out of the US Open, would seem likely.
However, I just don’t see either man being able to top Medvedev on this surface; however, I’d rather bet Tiafoe at +1200 to win this quarter than Nadal at +330.
American Sebastian Korda is also playing great tennis and pushed Djokovic to two tiebreakers in his loss in Adelaide, but a 3rd round matchup against Medvedev is likely too tough.
Taylor Fritz: (+200) to win his quarter
Taylor Fritz is likely the best American man to put your money on. He looked great at last week’s United Cup, beating Matteo Berrettini, Hubert Hurkacz, and Alexander Zverev each in straight sets. The draw is favorable for him too, given that he already beat Zverev and Diego Schwartzman has not looked good of late.
However, if you want another fun longshot bet, the only player Fritz lost to at the United Cup was Cameron Norrie, who is +600 to win his quarter, which includes Jannik Sinner, Stefanos Tsitsipas, and Felix Auger-Aliassime, so it is a totally winnable quarter for Norrie.
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2023 Australian Open Women’s Best Bets and Picks
Iga Swiatek: (+225) to win the Australian Open
Much like Djokovic, Iga Swiatek is the safest bet to win this tournament. However, unlike Djokovic, you can get pretty favorable odds for her to do so.
The Pole had a dream 2022 season, posting a 67-9 record, including 47-7 on hard courts, and winning eight WTA titles. She has the best forehand on the Tour, never seems to tire, and can place her shots with such precision that it makes up for her lack of top-end power.
+225 seems too good a bet to pass up.
Aryna Sabalenka: (+200) to win her quarter
One of the players on the tour who has recently beaten Swiatek is 5th-ranked Aryna Sabalenka. She has also started off the 2023 season hot, winning a title in Adelaide without losing a set. While the Russian did go just 33-22 overall last year and 20-15 on hard courts, she also made the U.S. Open semifinals and the WTA Finals, after beating Swiatek in the semifinals.
Sabalenka likely wouldn’t be challenged until the quarterfinals, where she would face 2nd-ranked Ons Jabeur, but I think Sabalenka has to power to dispatch the Tunisian.
Jessica Pegula: (+225) to win her quarter
Another player who recently defeated Swiatek is American Jessica Pegula, who took down the Pole 6-2 6-2 in the semi-finals of the United Cup. Pegula has to power to thrive on hard courts and has made the quarter-finals of the Australian Open each of the last two years. Given that Amanda Anisimova is the next-best seed Pegula would face until the quarter-finals, there seems to be a strong chance that Pegula faces either Barbora Krejcikova or Maria Sakkari for a chance to hit this bet.
However, if you want a long shot in that same quarter, then Madison Keys +650 to win the quarter is appealing. The American is 5-0 to start the year and the faster conditions at the Australian Open highlight Keys’ powerful groundstrokes.
She would potentially have to face 24th-ranked Victoria Azarenka or 2020 champion Sofia Kenin in the third round, but Keys beat Kenin at last year’s Australian Open in straight sets and Azarenka is not as consistent a player as she used to be. Keys would then likely face Sakkari in the fourth round, and while Sakkari is really talented, she can also easily get rattled, which Keys can do with her power.
That would set up Keys vs Pegula in the quarter-finals and you can take your pick of which American to throw your money behind.