The college football season is heating up, and we’ve already seen major upsets with Notre Dame falling to Marshall and Texas A&M losing to Appalachian State after openly mocking them the night before the game.
Yet, even as the landscape continues to shift, as it will drastically over the next few weeks, there are still a few places where we can find betting value.
Below, we’ll talk you through some of our best bets for Week 3 of the college football season, when it comes to both straight picks against the spread and also player props. We’ll keep track of these as the season goes on, so we can hold ourselves accountable for the advice we’ve been giving you.
Best Bets: Picks Against the Spread
I like LSU at +2.5 because I think we’re undervaluing a solid team based on a poor start. They had an extra point to tie the game blocked against Florida State in Week 1, and I can’t help but think if they had tied that game and gone on to win, we’d be singing a very different tune about LSU. They have a solid defense led by a potentially dominant defensive line, and I expect them to show up at home. Transfer quarterback Jayden Daniels is also seeming to improve as he gets more comfortable, so I’m taking the points here.
However, I’m more than happy to lay the point with Houston – 9.5. It’s great that Kansas is 2-0, but I think last week’s win against West Virginia is more of an indication of how poorly this season will go in Morgantown. This Houston offense is really solid, and I expect Clayton Tune to pass all over this Kansas secondary. Kansas is a feel-good story for now, but I just think this Houston offense will be too much.
Much like with LSU, I think we’re overreacting too much to put Oregon at -3.5 at home against BYU. This was a team that came into the season ranked 11th. Yes, they were destroyed by Georgia in Week 1, but Georgia is also the defending National Champions. They don’t play at BYU’s level either.
The Oregon offense was able to move the ball against an elite Georgia defense, even if they didn’t score many points. I expect more success against the Cougars this week, who, let’s be honest, would potentially be a much larger underdog if they hadn’t squeaked out a double-overtime game last week against Baylor. I’m gonna take the increased value that win gave Oregon this week.
Lastly, I think we’re overvaluing Indiana, so I’m going to take Western Kentucky +6.5. The Hilltoppers seem to be firing on all cylinders early with new quarterback Austin Reed, averaging seven yards per play and scoring seven touchdowns in two games. Meanwhile, the Indiana offense, fresh with new faces from the transfer portal, averaged just 4.6 yards per play in the opener against Illinois. Indiana may be the bigger name, but I think Western Kentucky could be the better team.
Best Bets: Player Props
If you’ve been reading any of our Iowa State coverage this year then you know all about the season Jirehl Brock is having. He put up 100 yards last week against an elite Iowa defense, and Ohio has been gashed on the ground. Going over 112.5 rushing yards might seem high, but I can easily see it.
Haynes King threw for just 97 yards against Appalachian State. Now he gets Miami. He could easily bomb again or even get benched, so I’m going to take the under on 219.5 passing yards.
Malik Cunningham is the best running back on Louisville. He’s also their quarterback. He put up 121 yards last week against UCF but carried the ball 17 times. He doesn’t only run on broken plays; they are consistently scheming to get him carries. When Florida State faced Jayden Daniels and LSU, they gave up 114 rushing yards to Daniels. I think Cunningham can do that so the over on 70.5 rushing yards seems fair.