MLB in the Book: Predicting 2024 win totals for Yankees, AL East clubs

Spring Training is underway across Major League Baseball as we creep closer and closer to Opening Day and, thankfully, warmer weather. The Yankees enter the 2024 season with high expectations and a win total set at 93.5.

Given the competition in the AL East this year, however, there is value to be found in the DraftKings Sportsbook. Let’s take a look at the AL East and each team’s win totals heading into the 2024 season. 

New York Yankees

• 2023 Record: 82-80
• 2024 O/U Wins: 93.5
• Pick: Under (-115)

While the Yankees have brought in the firepower of Juan Soto and bolstered their rotation with Marcus Stroman, they were one of the most injured teams in baseball last season. These injuries exposed glaring weaknesses with how the roster was constructed, which the Yankees attempted to address this winter. Outfield depth is no longer a worry with Soto and Alex Verdugo coming from the other side of the rivalry from the Red Sox. I expect the Yankees to be better than last year but do not believe they can be 11 wins better. That is why I am going under 93.5 total wins.

Boston Red Sox

• 2023 Record: 78-84
• 2024 O/U Wins: 79.5
• Pick: Under (-120)

This is my favorite bet in the AL East. You rarely see a team so defeated and already fighting for their lives in the first week of spring training, but that is exactly what the Boston Red Sox have been doing so far.

Manager Alex Cora is in the last year of his contract and has given little indication he will stay with the team past this season. Add on the “full throttle” comments made by the front office to start the offseason only to later walk back those comments and be $31 million under the first luxury tax threshold and the outlook is rather grim for this Red Sox team.

On the field, the Red Sox lost a major piece of their offense in Justin Turner and did very little to replace the production he brought to the table. This team seems on the brink of a blow-up, which could come at the first sign of adversity faced this season. I am almost afraid about how much I like this. 

Tampa Bay Rays

• 2023 Record: 99-63
• 2024 O/U Wins: 84.5
• Pick: Over (-105)

After a season where they seemingly overachieved yet disappointed in the playoffs, the Rays enter the 2024 season with moderate expectations. With a relatively quiet offseason compared to the Yankees and other teams, it is fair to expect regression from last year. However, with the baseball factory built on analytics and maximizing the potential of their players, I have the Rays going over 84.5 wins and being right in the mix in the AL East.

Baltimore Orioles

• 2023 Record: 101-61
• 2024 O/U Wins: 90.5
• Pick: Over (-110)

The Baltimore Orioles reached unprecedented levels of success for their organization in an astounding 2023 season. Highlighted by young talent and a loaded roster full of potential, this is my favorite over in the AL East. Bringing in pitching reinforcements such as Corbin Burnes and Craig Kimbrel, as well as changing hands of ownership, the future for the Birds is bright. I expect them to clear the 90.5 mark easily and even scare the 101-win mark set last season.

Toronto Blue Jays

• 2023 Record: 89-73
• 2024 O/U Wins: 86.5
• Pick: Under (+105)

After believing they were landing two-way star Shohei Ohtani, the offseason for the Blue Jays seemed deflating. For a team that was able to sneak into the playoffs and then was properly dismissed by the Minnesota Twins, it seemed like there was lots of area for improvement. Toronto has been on the precipice of being legitimate contenders in the AL East for years now, yet they have never been able to get over the hump between potential and results. I see this year playing out similarly with the Blue Jays going under 86.5 wins. 

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