News came out yesterday that Giants running back Saquon Barkley doesn’t intend to sign his franchise tag before the team’s offseason program begins on Monday and will sit out the workouts.
If you’ve followed our reporting in the offseason, you know this isn’t really a surprise.
Giants general manager Joe Schoen has made it pretty clear that the organization is not looking to make a long-term commitment to the running back at the cost that he appears to desire. During the bye week this season, the team offered Saquon a deal with an average salary of $12.5 million but the running back reportedly rejected the offer and now that level of salary is no longer viable based on the team’s contract situation.
We also covered a study done by Over the Cap on second contracts for running backs that found that “the production in the years prior to a contract signing are probably unsustainable due to breaking down.” The study looked at 68 running backs who signed multi-year contracts that were at least three years in length between 2011 and 2020 and confirmed that “overall the teams had an unfavorable outcome about 83% of the time with the team overestimating the length of the contract.”
So while it remains highly likely that Saquon Barkley will play for the New York Giants on the franchise tag this season, it would also appear likely that 2023 could be his last year in New York. Unsurprisingly, the team is planning for a future without Barkley and have had known meetings with five players at the position.
Considering this is a deep running backs class, the Giants are almost certain to dip into it to shore up the position’s future. So who are these running backs they met with and when could New York call their name on draft night?
Bijan Robinson, Texas (Combine visit)
Projected Round: 1st
Bijan Robinson is the class of the running back group, and everybody knows it. There is almost no chance that he makes it to the Giants at pick 25, and it’s hard to see a world where the Giants trade up to get him. Meeting with him was likely just Schoen doing his due diligence in case something were to happen during the NFL Draft that would make Robinson a realistic possibility.
The 2022 Doak Walker Award winner was a unanimous First Team All-American. He has a generational combination of size, speed, power, and elusiveness that make people think he’s one of the best running backs to come out of college in years. He’s a likely top-ten pick and certainly not a player you draft to have sit for a year behind Barkley.
Tank Bigsby, Auburn (Combine visit)
Projected Round: 3rd-4th
Bigsby is a tough north/south runner with clear lower-body power who can run through tackles. He keeps his feet moving constantly and has the vision and explosiveness to cut back into lanes and fire through gaps. Plus, his track background in the 100 meters gives him the speed to break into the open field and rip off big chunks of yardage.
He’s more of a one-cut, foot in the dirt and go, kind of runner, but he goes have good vision and footwork, so he should adapt to multiple types of blocking schemes. He wasn’t asked to catch passes much at Auburn, so he may be more of a two-down running back, but he did show improvement in pass protection, so there’s a chance he doesn’t have to come off the field on third down.
He has the ability to emerge as a true feature back and having a year to improve his receiving and pass blocking would be ideal for his development, but he also doesn’t bring many different skills when compared to Barkley, so he would operate as a strict back-up for a year, which is more palatable if he last until the 4th round and not the 3rd.
Tyjae Spears, Tulane (Pro Day visit)
Projected Round: 3rd-4th
We’ve covered Spears in a few articles going back to Senior Bowl week, and we love him as a fit for the Giants. He’s an explosive runner with easy breakaway speed to not just rip off 50-yard gains like Bigsby but to take any carry to the house. While he’s a smaller running back at 5’10” and 190 pounds, he can run through contact and does a good job of setting up tacklers to make them miss. He’s an exciting and “twitchy” athlete, who fits a lot of the characteristics that Giants backup Matt Brieda has, which means Spears could pair well with Barkley in 2023 and then possibly take on a bigger role in 2024.
The main concerns with Spears are that his build limits his appeal as a workhorse back and Tulane didn’t really involve him as a pass-catching threat. He has the skills to be an asset there, but he may need time to develop them more.
Kendre Miller, TCU (Official 30 visit)
Projected Round: 4th-5th
Miller was the lead rusher for a TCU offense that made the National Championship game. He finished the season with 1,399 rushing yards and 17 rushing touchdowns, so it’s curious to see him as a potential 5th-round pick, but a lot of that has to do with his limited athletic profile.
Miller is a patient runner who allows his blockers to create lanes and he does have the ability to make a quick cut and hit a hole hard to pick up big runs. However, he lacks the speed to break the home run carry. His upright style and lack of true explosiveness mean he’s likely more of n in-between-the-tackles runner who can get north and south quickly. That does have value on first and second downs, so he could pair well with a Matt Brieda type of running back if the Giants transition to more of a committee if/when Saquon leaves.
Owen Wright, Monmouth (Local visit)
Projected Round: 6th-7th
Wright got a local visit with the Giants as a New Jersey product, but he’s also getting some love as one of the sleepers at the running back position. At 5’9″ and 220 pounds, he’s a downhill, physical runner who is often described as a “bruiser.” While he played on all three downs and also on special teams at Monmouth, he was primarily used in short-yardage situations, which is where he will likely have a future in the NFL due to his size, power, and hard-nosed running style.
That type of short-yardage success is certainly valuable, as is his special teams ability, and Wright could make a good third running back in a room with Barkley and Breida, but he’s certainly not a long-term option to lead the Giants in carries. Although it sounds like he’d be an immediate fan favorite if he were to be a late-round selection in the 2023 NFL Draft.
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