Harrison Bader’s glove is going to get him an opportunity to be the Mets’ starting center fielder in 2024.
The 29-year-old has been one of Major League Baseball’s best defensive center fielders since 2018, with his outs above average (range) ranking in an average of the 95th percentile amongst all players at his position (h/t Baseball Savant).
What has withheld him from becoming a star in the majors is his bat. He’s a career .243 hitter with a .708 OPS while striking out in 27% of his at-bats.
According to Bader, offensive struggles have aligned with ceaseless injury issues. He was limited to just 98 games last year with the Yankees and Reds thanks to hamstring, oblique, groin, and rib issues.
“This feeling I had simply walking around my apartment, getting into cabs, walking down subway steps, that feeling is something I never want to have again,” Bader said during his introductory Zoom press conference last month. “Clearly, something was off.”
Conditioning has become a priority for Bader down in spring training and a clean bill of health will provide a blank slate, at least at the dish.
But where is the best place to put Bader in the lineup?
President of baseball operations David Stearns said that Bader is going to see a lot of center field in 2024, which will push Brandon Nimmo to left field — even if manager Carlos Mendoza was non-committal about it earlier this week.
Matchups will play a big part in deciphering Bader’s playing time with the Mets, and he should be automatically penciled in whenever there is a lefty on the mound. In his career, Bader owns a .262/.331/.494 slash line (.824 OPS) with 21 home runs and 63 RBI in 523 plate appearances — not even a full season’s worth.
Compare that to marks of .237/.304/.364 (.667 OPS) with 38 home runs and 154 RBI in nearly triple the plate appearances (1,585).
In terms of batting order, he hasn’t been able to string consistent success in any particular spot. However, there should be an alluring option to at least give him a number of spring-training at-bats in the No. 2 spot of the lineup.
The sample size is extremely limited, but Bader has a .292 average and .929 OPS in his 71 career at-bats in the second spot, which also includes a significantly smaller 19% strikeout rate. A bulk of them came in his first full season in the big leagues with the St. Louis Cardinals, where he batted .306 with three home runs and six RBI in 36 at-bats.
Since then, he’s had 14 at-bats in that position.
The Mets might also be keen on allowing Starling Marte to reclaim that No. 2 spot in the lineup. It was in that place that he proved to be the engine of a lineup that won 101 games in 2022 while helping him earn All-Star honors. His absence due to numerous injuries last season further shortened a lineup that did not receive much consistent production after the cleanup position.
Historically, Bader has been most consistent batting eighth. Twenty of his 59 home runs have come there and his .749 OPS is the highest of any place in which he’s accrued more than 100 career at-bats.
Given his speed, there is also a legitimate pitch in batting him ninth (.240 average, .709 OPS in 208 at-bats). If he can play a full season, he’s capable of stealing 30 bases — he had 20 in 98 games last year — which carries speed back to the top of the lineup.
