MLB in the Book: Predicting 2024 win totals for Mets, NL East clubs

After taking a deep dive into the Yankees and the rest of the AL East win totals for the upcoming MLB season, it’s time to turn our attention to the Mets and the NL East.

With the bad taste from 2023 still lingering around Citi Field, fans might be hesitant to get their hopes up for this season considering the Atlanta Braves won the division running away and showed no signs of regression. But that does not mean there still is no value to be found in the book.

New York Mets

• 2023 Record: 75-87
• 2024 O/U Wins: 81.5
• Pick: Under (-110)

The Mets’ win total being exactly at the over/under .500 mark is the perfect encapsulation of how tempered expectations have been in Queens. After entering last season with sky-high expectations that quickly came crashing down, the Mets seem to be in a state of purgatory — at least in 2024. While making minor additions to the roster with names like Sean Manea and Harrison Bader, there are still plenty of questions left to be answered about how the roster is constructed and if they can sustain a winning model. With news of Kodai Sengai already starting the season on the IL, it seems like this is giving indications of another mediocre season for the Mets. While they may come close to scaring the over .500 mark, I believe they will fall just short. 

Atlanta Braves

• 2023 Record: 104-58
• 2024 O/U Wins: 101.5
• Pick: Over (+100)

After running away with the division last year, there is no reason to believe the Braves train will not keep rolling through the NL East. Being able to stack wins against teams like the Washington Nationals and Miami Marlins will only aid Atlanta as they look for their third straight season with 100-plus wins. Keeping their main core intact while adding reinforcements such as Chris Sale and Jarred Kelenic, I believe the Braves will win the division by double-digit games yet again. While 102 wins is a lot to ask for, the value at +100 is enough to take the shot and have faith that Atlanta will repeat their success of last season.

Philadelphia Phillies

• 2023 Record: 90-72
• 2024 O/U Wins: 90.5
• Pick: Under (-120)

The Fightin’ Phils may have gotten the better of the Braves in the playoffs last season, but a relatively quiet offseason did not improve the team’s structure. The Phillies showed they are a team built for postseason success and merely try to keep themselves afloat during the regular season. Making a long-term commitment to their ace Aaron Nola and bringing in Whit Merrifield may help, but being in the same division as the Braves will cost the Fightins regular season wins. I still believe Philadelphia will make the playoffs, just as a team with under 90 wins.

Miami Marlins

• 2023 Record: 84-78
• 2024 O/U Wins: 78.5
• Pick: Over (-115)

While the MLB is no place for participation trophies, the Marlins reaching the Wild Card was a massive step in the right direction for the franchise. Even though they were quickly sent packing by the Phillies, what they accomplished during the regular season should not be forgotten. Sandy Alcantara regressed from his Cy Young Award-winning season in 2022, yet the Marlins still found a way into the playoffs with over 80 wins. I see this year playing out in a similar fashion and the offensive firepower of Luis Arraez and Jazz Chisholm leading Miami.

Washington Nationals

• 2023 Record: 71-91
• 2024 O/U Wins: 66.5
• Pick: Under (-120)

While Washington has one of the top farm systems in all of baseball, they are still a couple of years away from being a legitimate contender for the playoffs. Despite catching fire in August and going 17-11, they still finished 20 games under .500 and in the basement of the NL East. Their offseason gave very little indication of anything changing and I do not have faith they will have a month over .500 this season. That is why I am going under 66.5 wins.

Odds courtesy of DraftKings. For more, click here.

For more on the Mets and the NL East, visit AMNY.com