David Stearns’ construction of the Mets’ starting rotation is the exact opposite of what Billy Eppler and Steve Cohen did last winter.
There isn’t just a single earth-shattering contract to create a top-heavy unit as the team did by pairing Justin Verlander with Max Scherzer for the 2023 campaign.
It’s not for lack of trying, though, as they offered a record-breaking deal for Yoshinobu Yamamoto, who opted to sign with the Los Angeles Dodgers instead. Granted, Yamamoto is 25 and would be the club’s perceived ace for a decade compared to bringing on the 40-year-old Verlander.
The winter ahead of the 2024 campaign — Stearns’ first as New York’s president of baseball operations — is all about depth behind Kodai Senga while taking some significant risks.
2024 Mets projected starting rotation
Kodai Senga, RHP
Senga proved himself an ace during his debut season in Major League Baseball. Overcoming the obstacles of a heavier workload, steeper mound, and larger baseball, the 30-year-old was the Mets’ most effective pitcher in 2023 thanks to a devastating ghost forkball that befuddled North American hitters. Going 12-7 with a 2.98 ERA, Senga finished second in the NL Rookie of the Year voting and seventh in the Cy Young Award balloting. He became just the 14th rookie pitcher in the post-deadball era (1920) to record 200 or more strikeouts in a season (202).
Jose Quintana, LHP
The 34-year-old southpaw was forced to start his first season with the Mets late after undergoing rib surgery during spring training. Despite a late-July return, Quintana was effective in Queens, going 3-6 with a 3.57 ERA. Of his 13 starts, eight were quality ones (at least six innings pitched, three or fewer earned runs allowed). How much the Mets can lean on him, though, will be a question. He’s pitched fewer than 80 innings in three of the last four years.
Luis Severino, RHP
Signing a one-year, $13 million deal with the Mets after eight seasons across town in the Bronx, Severino has everything to prove in 2024. The 29-year-old is coming off his worst year as a pro, going 4-8 with a 6.65 ERA and a 1.646 WHIP. Not only have ceaseless injuries stifled his ascent as a former All-Star and Cy Young candidate, but pitch-tipping issues made him all the more predictable with the Yankees. If the Mets can iron out some of these issues and keep him on the field (obviously, big ifs), they could stumble upon the kind of pitcher who went 42-26 with a 3.46 ERA and 1.151 WHIP across his first five seasons in the majors.
Sean Manaea, LHP
Like Severino, Manaea has to show that he can hang as a go-to starting-pitching option in the majors after signing a two-year deal with the Mets on Sunday. He was demoted to the bullpen last season with the San Francisco Giants, but he finished the season strong after establishing a developing bump in velocity and a brand-new sweeper. It was good enough to get him back in the rotation and he ended the season with a 2.25 ERA across four starts.
Adrian Houser, RHP
Stearns knows Houser, which is a big reason why he went out and acquired him along with outfielder Tyrone Taylor from the Brewers last month. The 30-year-old doesn’t come with many surprises. He’s a lower-rotation option who performs steadily enough to assume a No. 5 spot of a rotation and stay there. Last season, he performed similarly to his career numbers, going 8-5 with a 4.12 ERA and 1.392 WHIP. He owns a 4.00 career ERA with a 1.357 WHIP across seven seasons.
6th-man options
The Mets could realistically go to a six-man rotation to help preserve their unit. Senga pitched 166 innings last year, Severino has averaged 52 innings per year over his last four seasons, and Houser has pitched more than 112 innings in a season just once in his career.
A six-man rotation diminishes the top five’s workload, which keeps the likes of Senga fresh, and decreases the chance of injury, which is important for someone like Severino. Options include right-handers Tylor Megill and Jose Butto along with southpaws David Peterson and Joey Lucchesi.
