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MLB free picks and best bets for August 2nd

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Vladimir Guerrero Jr in MLB action
Toronto Blue Jays’ Vladimir Guerrero Jr. runs out a single off Detroit Tigers starting pitcher Drew Hutchison in the first inning of a baseball game in Toronto, Saturday, July 30, 2022. (Jon Blacker/The Canadian Press via AP)

Welcome to the Daily Dish, where we give you our MLB best bets for the day.

Below you’ll find the games our betting model thinks give you the best chance at betting wins for the day. This means we won’t just give you the bets most likely to win but those that will win at odds that make it worth betting. We could tell you that a -235 favorite will win, but if you have to bet $235 just to win $100, that’s not a smart bet. 

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MLB Best Bets for August 2nd

MLB best bets

Listen, if you’re going to play at all today, I’d play small. The MLB trade deadline throws a lot of things into a chaotic mess, and unknowns can often be bad for gambling. With my picks today, I tried to focus on things that were a little more rooted in knowns rather than unknowns. 

The Yankees (-167 on the ML) didn’t give up any key offensive pieces at the deadline, so we know we’re seeing their normal lineup, and the model has them favored by 2.01 runs. Same with the Dodgers (-144 ML), who will have their complete lineup and our model likes them over the Giants by 1.36 runs. The Blue Jays made some deals today, but not anything that will cost them any of the members of their starting lineup, and with Gausman on the hill, our model has them over Tampa Bay by 0.72 runs and they are still just -137 on the ML, which I like.  

The Rangers are a bit trickier, but they also didn’t lose any pieces of their lineup today and also held the majority of their bullpen assets. Meanwhile, Baltimore will be without Trey Mancini and also Jorge Lopez if this gets close. Our model, without any of that factored in, has Texas as 0.53 favorites over Baltimore, so I’ll take my chances with Texas at -125 on the ML. 

The same goes for Oakland, who our model likes by 0.94 runs over the Angels, who will also be without Brandon Marsh. That’s not really a big loss, but these two lineups will be essentially the same with Oakland surprisingly holding onto Sean Murphy and Ramon Laureano. The Angels dealt starting pitcher Noah Syndergaard so Chase Silseth will start on three hours notice, which makes me lean with Oakland at +103 on the ML. 

The Royals will also be without Whit Merrifield tonight, and our model already had the White Sox as 2.08 run favorites, so I’ll take the +1.5 runline at +115. 

 

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