New York City FC (NYCFC) and the New York Red Bulls play their last matches of Phase One of the 2025 Leagues Cup against Deportivo Toluca and FC Juárez, respectively. Both teams’ prospects of qualifying are low, but still possible, given that a few Liga MX sides do them a favor.
Only the top four from each league qualify for the knockout rounds, starting with the quarterfinals on Aug. 19 and 20. The top three tournament finishers will earn a spot for next season’s CONCACAF Champions League to further incentivize teams that make it to the latter stages.
After the second matchweek, NYCFC are 11th on three points with a goal difference of minus one. The Red Bulls are ninth, on four points with a positive goal difference.
Seattle and Portland, the top two with two wins, are guaranteed to go through if they do not lose. Inter Miami and Minnesota United, the other two teams holding qualifying spots, must not lose either to ensure safety. If Miami does lose to Pumas, all the teams on four points cannot record more than a draw to spare Lionel Messi and Co.’s blushes.
As things stand, NYCFC must win to qualify, and needs nothing short of a 10-0 win against Toluca and the top seven teams in the standings to lose to guarantee passage. If they score less than four, they will not make it through.
Toluca drew their first game against the Columbus Crew, who are fourth in the MLS Eastern Conference, and came back to beat C.F. Montréal, who are at the bottom of the EC.
It’s almost the same story for the Red Bulls, but not as straightforward — their extra point over their city rivals means higher odds of making it through, but they still need to win. To definitely secure their spot, a 9-0 win is needed against Juárez, while the top seven teams need to lose.
Juárez will advance after picking up five points against Charlotte (4-1) and Cincinnati (2-2, 4-3 on penalties).
There are three scenarios if the Red Bulls win, but not by the guaranteed result.
If Seattle and Portland draw and lose the penalty shootout, the teams between RBNY and the top two cannot win for the Red side of New York to qualify.
If Miami does win, every other team in the MLS besides the current top three must lose for the Red Bulls to advance. Lastly, if Minnesota (fourth) and LA Galaxy (fifth) do not win, RBNY must win by at least three goals to just inch into the last qualifying position.
If the Red Bulls draw and win on penalty kicks to earn two points, the teams in fourth to eighth cannot earn more than a point, regardless of the top three’s results.
However, this assumes that every team below NYCFC and the New York Red Bulls don’t win.
