This Saturday’s Kentucky Derby could live up to the nickname of being the greatest two minutes in sports — or even slightly faster than that.
No fewer than five horses have the speed profile to gun for the lead and set a hot tempo early on. Should that fast pace develop, we could see not only closers pick up the pieces late and score a big win but also flirt with a final time of under two minutes — something that has not happened since Monarchos won the Kentucky Derby back in 2001 with a time of 1:59.4, just two-fifths of Secretariat’s track record of 1973.
The morning line favorite, Journalism, is one horse that could come up big in the 1 1/4 mile race in the Kentucky Derby. He’s won three straight races out in California, including the Santa Anita Derby last out, with his last two victories coming with triple-digit Beyer speed figures of 108 and 102, respectively.
Trained by Michael McCarthy and ridden by Michael McCarthy, Journalism impressed in winning both of his Kentucky Derby preps this year with strong late kicks. Though the fields he faced were much smaller than the 20-horse field set to enter the Churchill Downs starting gate this Saturday, his prior experiences running wide and overcoming traffic can only help him get around the gridlock.
Here’s how the field of the 151st Kentucky Derby shakes out:
151st Kentucky Derby
Saturday, May 3
Churchill Downs, Louisville, KY
Purse: $5 million
Conditions: 1 1/4 Miles, dirt; 3-year-old colts and geldings
Post time: 6:57 p.m. ET
Television: NBC/Peacock (coverage begins at 2:30 p.m. ET)
Pace prediction
As the field stands, five frontrunners can set a very quick pace: Citizen Bull, Neoequos, Rodriguez, East Avenue, and Owen Almighty. Expect Citizen Bull and Neoequos, the two inside runners, to scramble out of the gate along with Rodriguez, potentially putting the squeeze on Final Gambit in the process. Owen Almighty might be afleet of foot coming out of the far outside stall, while East Avenue — if jockey Manny Franco doesn’t try to rate the horse — may also be in the early mix. Baeza, should he draw into the field with a scratch before Friday morning, would only intensify the opening pace.
The potential is great for a sharp opening quarter of under 23 seconds; a first quarter-mile in 24 seconds or longer would be shocking and favor a frontrunner like Rodriguez going wire to wire. With as many as five horses in the mix for the lead early on, that is an unlikely scenario.
A first half-mile of the Kentucky Derby of under 46 seconds spells trouble for any horse on the lead at that point of the race, in which the field will begin their run down the Churchill Downs backstretch. Inside that quarter-mile backstretch run, expect to see stalkers and closers begin to gather momentum — American Promise, Luxor Cafe, Journalism, Grande, Publisher, Tiztastic, Coal Battle, Sandman and Sovereignty.
With hot fractions early on, the 3/4-mile time could come in under 1 minute, 10 seconds. At that point, the frontrunners other than Rodriguez will start to bend under the strain. The closers will advance on the far turn, and then it’s a matter of positioning and traffic. American Promise and Journalism figure to be closer to the rail. Grande, Publisher and Tiztastic will likely need to get past some of the backpedaling frontrunners; Coal Battle, Sandman and Sovereignty will potentially be caught wide on the turn — will any of them have the momentum and stamina to grab the lead in the stretch?
The final quarter-mile of the Kentucky Derby likely comes down to who will close fastest — and if Rodriguez can somehow hold off the challengers after that early pace.
Five to play
Journalism — He’s the best horse in the field, but as we all know, the best horse doesn’t always win the Kentucky Derby. Yet his Derby preps have shown Journalism could win this race with his late closing kick, his pedigree (by Curlin) bred to run forever, and his penchant to win despite wide trips and traffic trouble. Granted, gridlock in a five-horse Santa Anita Derby is nothing like the bumps, shuffles and squeezing of a 20-horse Kentucky Derby field. Traffic trouble might be the only valid excuse if he comes up short Saturday.
American Promise — The biggest horse physically in the field, the chestnut colt trained by 89-year-old legend D. Wayne Lukas blew away the competition seven weeks ago in the Virginia Derby, a one-turn dirt race over 1 1/8 miles. American Promise has yet to flash the kind of speed of a contender, but he’s been coming in fresh off a long layoff and training sharply at Churchill Downs. If he goes off at anywhere near his 30-1 morning odds, it would be a serious steal.
Sovereignty — In his two prep races in Florida, Sovereignty drew the far outside post at Gulfstream Park, a track with a short run into the first turn that usually dooms outside runners. He finished first in the Fountain of Youth Stakes by a nose, but lost next out to the sidelined Tappan Street in the Florida Derby. Even in defeat, Sovereignty showed the ability to close strongly despite a wide trip and traffic trouble, and that makes him a legitimate threat to score a Derby win from, yet again, a far outside post.
Rodriguez — He had been knocking on the door in prep races out in California early on, but Rodriguez came through big in the Wood Memorial. He’ll face a considerable challenge Saturday with a strong early pace, but he is the lone frontrunner in the field with the talent to survive a speed duel and claim victory. Having Mike Smith in the irons helps; he is one of the smartest jockeys in the game. Trainer Bob Baffert, meanwhile, had trained six horses to Kentucky Derby triumphs before being exiled from Churchill Downs for 3 years due to the drug-related disqualification of 2021 Derby winner Medina Spirit. If Rodriguez wins Saturday, it might be Baffert’s sweetest Derby victory of all.
Grande — His only win thus far on his short resume is a maiden race victory at Gulfstream Park, yet he showed the ability to close strong in the Wood Memorial despite a wide trip around Aqueduct. If anyone can get such a lightly-raced horse prepared enough to win the Kentucky Derby, it’s trainer Todd Pletcher and jockey John Velazquez. Grande is also owned by Queens native Mike Repole, who had previously sent top contenders like Fierceness and Forte to Louisville, only to experience disappointment. How ironic it would be for Grande to run his biggest race yet and finally get Repole, one of horse racing’s most successful owners and advocates, into the Churchill Downs winner’s circle.
