Predicting the winners of the Tony Awards, which will be held on Sunday night, June 8, and broadcast on CBS and Paramount+, is especially challenging this year for the best of all possible reasons.
It was a strong season for Broadway both artistically and commercially, and the best one overall since Broadway reopened following the devastating pandemic shutdown.
The theater industry still faces considerable challenges, including the escalating costs of producing a show (which, in turn, leads to higher ticket prices), the difficulty of presenting new work (rather than limited-run revivals with stars), unpredictable levels of tourism, an oversaturated media environment, pedestrian safety in Times Square, the effect of congestion pricing, and perhaps even a neighboring casino.
Nevertheless, this is an encouraging moment.
The excellent productions from the past season (some of which got overlooked by nominators) included new musicals (“Maybe Happy Ending,” “Dead Outlaw”); musical revivals (“Gypsy,” “Sunset Boulevard,” “Floyd Collins,” “Once Upon a Mattress,” “Pirates! The Penzance Musical”); new plays (“The Hills of California,” “John Proctor is the Villain,” “The Picture of Dorian Gray,” “Oh, Mary!,” “English,” “Good Night, and Good Luck”); and play revivals (“Eureka Day,” “Yellow Face,” “Our Town”) – and that’s on top of celebrated shows such as “Purpose,” “Operation Mincemeat,” “Just in Time,” and “Buena Vista Social Club.”
Numerous acclaimed performers received nominations, including Nicole Scherzinger and Tom Francis (“Sunset Boulevard”), Audra McDonald and Danny Burstein (“Gypsy”), Darren Criss (“Maybe Happy Ending”), Andrew Durand and Julia Knitel (“Dead Outlaw”), Jonathan Groff (“Just in Time”), Cole Escola and Conrad Ricamora (“Oh, Mary!”), Jak Malone (“Operation Mincemeat”), Laura Donnelly (“The Hills of California”), Sarah Snook (“The Picture of Dorian Gray”), Sadie Sink and Gabriel Ebert (“John Proctor is the Villain”), Daniel Dae Kim and Francis Jue (“Yellow Face”), Jessica Hecht (“Eureka Day”), and Marjan Neshat and Tala Ashe (“English”).
I suspect that “Sunset Boulevard” will win Best Musical Revival over “Gypsy” given that it is a sold-out smash and Jamie Lloyd’s thrilling, media-saturated production is superior to the original 1994 production, while “Gypsy” has already received multiple acclaimed revivals.
Best Musical is a tough contest this year. Traditional thinking suggests that the musical comedy “Death Becomes Her” will win because it is a traditional musical comedy that has done reasonably well at the box office and is expected to tour, while the four other shows (each of which has its admirers) could divide up the other voters. If any other show can win, it is “Maybe Happy Ending,” an intimate, beautiful, original work with international roots that has slowly become a surprise hit through positive word of mouth and will also tour (which is important to “road voters” who represent theaters across the country).
Branden Jacobs-Jenkins’ Pulitzer Prize-winning family drama “Purpose” has its admirers, and Kimberly Belflower’s “John Proctor is the Villain” is a smart, youthful, and timely work, but the winner will likely be Cole Escola’s anarchic camp comedy “Oh, Mary!,” which has become an unlikely phenomenon.
The most interesting category is Best Leading Actress in a Musical.
How can one rationally decide whether Nicole Scherzinger should win a Tony Award for her spooky, sexy, singular turn as Norma Desmond in “Sunset Boulevard” over Audra McDonald for her all-out, fearless performance as Rose in “Gypsy”? I would put my money on Scherzinger, if only because this is Scherzinger’s Broadway debut and breakout moment, while McDonald already has six Tony Awards.
Then again, Scherzinger has received pushback for some of her social media posts, while McDonald is a beloved figure who is now the first African-American female to play Rose on Broadway, and who was just subjected to offensive comments by a certain outspoken diva.
Below is a complete list of my predictions and who I plan to vote for:
Best Play: I predict and plan to vote for “Oh, Mary!”
Best Musical: I predict “Maybe Happy Ending” but plan to vote for “Dead Outlaw.”
Best Revival of a Play: I predict “Eureka Day” but plan to vote for “Yellow Face.”
Best Revival of a Musical: I predict and plan to vote for “Sunset Boulevard.”
Best Performance by a Leading Actor in a Play: I predict and plan to vote for Cole Escola (“Oh, Mary!”).
Best Performance by a Leading Actress in a Play: I predict Sarah Snook (“The Picture of Dorian Gray”) but plan to vote for Laura Donnelly (“The Hills of California”).
Best Performance by a Leading Actor in a Musical: I predict and plan to vote for Tom Francis (“Sunset Boulevard”).
Best Performance by a Leading Actress in a Musical: I predict Nicole Scherzinger (“Sunset Boulevard”) but plan to vote for Audra McDonald (“Gypsy”).
Best Performance by a Featured Actor in a Play: I predict Conrad Ricamora (“Oh, Mary!”) but plan to vote for Francis Jue (“Yellow Face”).
Best Performance by a Featured Actress in a Play: I predict and plan to vote for Jessica Hecht (“Eureka Day”).
Best Performance by a Featured Actor in a Musical: I predict Jak Malone (“Operation Mincemeat”) but I am still undecided over who to vote for among the five terrific nominees.
Best Performance by a Featured Actress in a Musical: I predict Natalie Venetia Belcon (“Buena Vista Social Club”) but plan to vote for Julia Knitel (“Dead Outlaw”).
Best Direction of a Play: I predict and plan to vote for Sam Pinkleton (“Oh, Mary!”).
Best Direction of a Musical: I predict Jamie Lloyd (“Sunset Boulevard”) but plan to vote for David Cromer (“Dead Outlaw”).
Best Book of a Musical: I predict “Maybe Happy Ending” but plan to vote for “Dead Outlaw.”
Best Original Score: I predict “Maybe Happy Ending” but plan to vote for “Dead Outlaw.”
Best Scenic Design of a Play: I predict “Stranger Things: The First Shadow” but plan to vote for “Good Night, and Good Luck.”
Best Scenic Design of a Musical: I predict and plan to vote for “Maybe Happy Ending.”
Best Costume Design of a Play: I predict and plan to vote for “Oh, Mary!”
Best Costume Design of a Musical: I predict “Death Becomes Her” but plan to vote for “Boop! The Musical.”
Best Lighting Design of a Play: I predict “Stranger Things: The First Shadow” but plan to vote for “Good Night, and Good Luck.”
Best Lighting Design of a Musical: I predict and plan to vote for “Sunset Boulevard.”
Best Sound Design of a Play: I predict “Stranger Things: The First Shadow” but plan to vote for “Good Night, and Good Luck.”
Best Sound Design of a Musical: I predict “Buena Vista Social Club” but plan to vote for “Floyd Collins.”
Best Choreography: I predict “Buena Vista Social Club” but plan to vote for “Boop! The Musical.”
Best Orchestrations: I predict “Buena Vista Social Club” but plan to vote for “Floyd Collins.”
