A new poll of the June 24 mayoral Democratic primary released Wednesday night shows Democratic socialist candidate Zohran Mamdani leading moderate Andrew Cuomo by four points. This marks the first time any survey in the race has had a candidate eclipse Cuomo’s consistent lead.
At the same time, however, Team Cuomo pointed to a separate poll that showed the former governor maintaining a comfortable double-digit advantage.
Mamdani, a Queens Assembly member, leads a survey, conducted by Public Policy Polling, as the top choice of 35% of the 573 voters polled. The result is just within the 4.1% margin of error. The poll did not include a ranked-choice voting simulation.
It has Cuomo, the former governor who’s attempting a political comeback, coming in second with 31% and city Comptroller Brad Lander third with 9%.
The poll, first reported by Politico, follows another recent survey by Data for Progress, taken on behalf of a super PAC supporting Mamdani, that had the Democratic socialist lawmaker just two points behind Cuomo in the final round of ranked-choice. Both point to a possible last-minute shakeup of the race, in which Mamdani poses a serious challenge to Cuomo’s formerly insurmountable comfortable lead.
The Public Policy Polling survey was conducted between June 6-7 on behalf of city Comptroller candidate Justin Brannan’s campaign. Brannan, who represents parts of southern Brooklyn in the City Council, and Mamdani were both endorsed by the New York Working Families Party.
It captured voters’ feelings on the race following the first Democratic primary debate last Wednesday and US Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez’s number one ranking of Mamdani the next day.
“While Cuomo hides, lies and has his billionaire donors fund deceptive attack ads, Zohran’s grassroots, citywide campaign has focused relentlessly on an agenda to improve the lives of working people—and New Yokrers are responding,” Mamdani spokesperson Andrew Epstein said in a statement. “We’re so close to turning the page on the corrupt politics of the past and winning a city we can all afford.”
Different poll, different story
The poll being highlighted by Cuomo’s campaign, conducted by Honan Strategy Group in partnership with the LGBTQ+ nonprofit Destination Tomorrow, showed the former governor winning by 12 points in the final round of a ranked-choice voting simulation. This result is more in line with the vast majority of polls conducted in the race, in which Cuomo has consistently led by double digits.
The Honan poll was taken between June 5 and 9, roughly the same period as the Public Policy survey. It surveyed 975 likely Democratic city voters. The margin of error is +/- 2.76%.
That same poll included an oversample of 282 LGBTQ+ Democratic voters, which showed Mamdani with a four-point lead on Cuomo (25% to 21%), a gap that’s within the oversample’s 6.82% margin of error.
Cuomo’s spokesperson Rich Azzopardi said in a statement: “It’s telling that the only polls showing this trend line are paid for by Zohran Mamdani Inc.”
He appeared to be referring to both the Mamdani-aligned PAC that commissioned the Data for Progress poll and Mamdani encouraging his supporters to donate to Brannan’s campaign in a social media video earlier this week — although the poll was conducted before he posted the video.
“As you know, we have had a poll in the field at the same time, and our poll showed a race with us maintaining what has now been a consistent double-digit lead for more than three months, which is rare for any NYC Mayoral race in recent memory,” Azzopardi added.
Both polls come as seven of the leading mayoral candidates will face off Thursday night in the second and final Democratic debate ahead of the primary. The affair will be broadcast on NY1 and co-moderated by the network, WNYC, and the news site THE CITY.
A tighter comptroller’s race?
Meanwhile, the Public Policy poll showed Brannan gaining some ground in his heated race with Manhattan Borough President Mark Levine, who still holds the lead.
It has Brannan with 19% compared to Levine with 30% and a whopping 44% of voters still undecided. The two comptroller hopefuls faced off in their final debate earlier this week.
