Two AFC West rivals clash on Monday Night when the Los Angeles Chargers look to deliver a blow to the Denver Bronco’s playoff hopes.
Denver Broncos (2-3) at Los Angeles Chargers (3-2)
Game Details:
- Location: SoFi Stadium in San Inglewood, CA
- Time: Monday, October 17th at 8:15 p.m. ET
- Channel: ESPN
Betting Stats:
- SPREAD: LAC -4.5
- OVER/UNDER: 45.5
Preview:
If you watched Denver’s Thursday Night Football failure against the Indianapolis Colts you’re probably thinking, “I need to watch this team in primetime again?” You’re not alone. However, Monday night is a huge game for Denver if they hope to keep alive their preseason playoff hopes. They can’t fall two games behind the Chargers already and feel good about making that up.
Obviously, we can’t start talking about this game without talking about how bad Russell Wilson has been this season. The veteran was a marquee acquisition for the Broncos this offseason, but he and the offense have simply fallen flat.
On the season, Wilson has completed 59% of his passes for 1,254 yards with four touchdowns and three interceptions. He’s taken 16 sacks in five games and is averaging a career-low 8.5 intended air yards per pass and 6.1 air yards per completion. Against the Colts, Wilson was 2-of-15 with two interceptions on throws of 10-plus yards. The arm strength simply isn’t there to push the ball down the field, which could be related to reports that Wilson has been playing with a partially torn lat muscle in his throwing shoulder.
Even if Wilson was healthy, this offense is being poorly managed by first-year head coach Nathaniel Hackett. The playcalling has seemed confusing and misguided much of the time, and Wilson is rarely asked to throw outside of the pocket, which makes no use of his above-average mobility.
As a result, the Broncos are 31st in the NFL, averaging just 15 points per game. They also rank just 20th in rushing yards gained and 18th in yards per carry, which isn’t going to get better with Javonte Williams out for the year. The Chargers’ defense has been bad against the run through five games, so the Broncos could try to establish Melvin Gordon and Mike Boone in the run game, but that doesn’t inspire a ton of confidence.
Denver is also dead last in the NFL in Red Zone conversion rate at just 21 percent% of their trips ending in touchdowns. As a team, they also lead the NFL in dropped passes. That’s not going to get you wins.
However, the Broncos do have a really solid defense. They are 3rd in the NFL, allowing just 289 yards per game, and 4th with just 16.0 points allowed per game. However, they will be without cornerback Ronald Darby, who was lost for the season last week, and pass-rusher Randy Gregory who is out this week with a knee injury. That will put a lot of pressure on Bradley Chubb.
But Denver will also blitz Justin Herbert heabvily since they are currently 4th in the NFL in blitz rate. The problem is that Herbert has been good against extra rushers this year, completing 60% of his passes for an average of 7.8 yards per attempt, according to Pro Football Focus.
The Chargers also saw their running game come alive last week with Austin Ekeler and Joshua Kelley combining for 222 rushing yards, 59 receiving yards, and three touchdowns in the win over Cleveland. Denver gives up 112.4 yards per game on the ground, and 135.6 yards over their last three games, so Los Angeles could look to continue getting those two guys going if they get out to an early lead on Monday.
Whichever way you slice it, this doesn’t seem like a good matchup for Denver.
Picks:
Player Props:
Austin Ekeler over 60.5 rushing yards
We just covered above all the reasons that we should be hammering this prop. Read above and then place your bet.
SPORTSBOOK: Bet at PointsBet (-100) or BetMGM(-110)
Melvin Gordon Over 12.5 rush attempts
Denver likes to run the football, and the Chargers have a weakness against the run. That will lead to a good amount of Melvin Gordon rushes early in the game. I think Denver may have to abandon the run in the second half, but I doubt they will do it fully and Gordon should rack up double-digit carries by then anyway, which means this is reachable.
SPORTSBOOK: Bet at Caesars (-129) or DraftKings (-135)
Justin Herbert over 9 rushing yards
Herbert is not a burner on the ground, but Herbert averaged over 17 rushing yards per game last season so even though his numbers are poor this year, I think it’s more because of his rib injury a few weeks ago. He’s easily capable of topping this, and if Denver is going to blitz as much as they’re likely to blitz, Herbert is going to have some scramble opportunities that should help him get over this total
SPORTSBOOK: Bet at Fanduel (-110)
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