Last year’s AFC and NFC top seeds face off on Thursday when the Titans travel to Green Bay to take on the Packers.
Tennessee Titans (6-3) at Green Bay Packers (4-6)
How to Watch:
- Day: Thursday, November 17th
- Time: 8:15 p.m. ET
- Channel: Amazon Prime
Betting Stats:
- MONEYLINE: GB (-170), TEN (+143)
- SPREAD: ATL -3
- OVER/UNDER: 41
Matchup:
It’s been a rough season for Green Bay, but Aaron Rodgers and the Packers finally snapped their five-game losing streak with a 31-28 overtime win against the Dallas Cowboys last week. Still, they remain four-and-a-half games behind the Vikings in the NFC North and one-and-a-half games behind the 49ers for the final wild-card spot, so there’s a chance they go from top seed to out of the playoffs in one year.
A big reason for that has obviously been the offseason trade sending Davante Adams to the Raiders. Without Adams, this offense has appeared stuck in the mud at times. The Packers are currently averaging just 18.4 points per game and are throwing for 148.2 yards per contest.
The Green Bay passing attack dropped from eighth in the NFL last season to 16th this year. However, they did get a boost last week from rookie wide receiver Christian Watson, a second-round pick who has been battling a few injuries early in the year. Healthy last week, Watson put together the first 100-yard receiving game of his career, with four catches for 107 yards and three touchdowns to help the Packers battle back from a 28-14 deficit.
Considering the Titans rank 25th this season against the pass, there is a good chance we’ll see Rodgers trying to go back to Watson a few times in this game. Something which is also made easier by how strong the Titans are against the run.
Green Bay has been solid on the ground this year, rushing for 133.4 yards per game, and Aaron Jones was a crucial reason they upset the Cowboys, taking 24 carries for 138 yards and one touchdown. However, the Titans have the second-best run defense in the league and do a great job of forcing teams into third-and-long situations, which has made them the stingiest third-down conversion defense in the league at 27.87%. Green Bay is going to find it hard to simply rely on the run game here.
But relying on the run game is also what Tennessee wants to do. They are tied with the Packers, rushing for 133.4 yards per game, and are led by Derrick Henry, who leads the AFC with 923 rushing yards on the season. The Titans are 4-1 when he goes over 100 yards on the ground in a game, so you know where the ball is going when they’re on offense.
The problem for the Packers’ defense is that they have been brutal against the run this season, ranking 26th and allowing nearly 141 yards per game. That’s a weakness that the Titans will no doubt try to exploit.
Also because Tennessee hasn’t been very good through the air, throwing for just 148.2 yards per game, which is 31st in the NFL.
Like the Packers, their offense has struggled due to an off-season trade that saw their top target, A.J. Brown, head to the Eagles. They’ve also had an early-round wide receiver suffer multiple injuries as first-round pick Treylon Burks just came off the IR last week. However, the passing game got a boost when quarterback Ryan Tannehill returned from a two-game absence.
Tannehill isn’t a world-beater, but he is far better than rookie Malik Willis. Last week against the Broncos, Tannehill completed 53% of his passes for 255 yards and two touchdowns. Yet, it was Nick Westbrook-Ikhine who was the first Titans receiver to post a 100-yard game all season, hauling in five catches for 113 yards and two touchdowns. Tennessee is going to need more of that from him against the Packers’ third-ranked pass defense.
But this Titans team has proven to be resilient and adaptable this season. Despite losing Brown and facing lots of questions about their ability to win their division again, they have won six of their last seven games and three of their last four road games. It should give them the confidence to come into Green Bay and put up a fight.
Staff Picks:
Top Player Props:
If you’re going to be betting on action besides the spread, here are three player props we like from Thursday night’s game:
Aaron Rodgers Over 242.5 Receiving Yards
As we mentioned above, I think Green Bay is going to find the sledding tough on the ground against the Titans, especially if defensive tackle Jeffrey Simmons is back. However, the Titans have been exploitable through the air all year, so I think Rodgers will be able to take advantage of what’s a pretty low total, especially with Watson and Allen Lazard both healthy.
Where to bet: -1175at DraftKings Sportsbook
Aaron Jones over 22.5 receiving yards
If Aaron Jones is going to struggle to find running room, as we discussed above, then the Packers are going to have to find other ways to get him the ball. While he did have a rough stretch through the air, Jones has gone over this prop in his last two games, and I think this matchup sets up well for him to hit the over again.
Where to bet: -110 at BetRivers Sportsbook
Ryan Tannehill under 187.5 passing yards
This may seem like a low line, but we already mentioned that Tannehill averages fewer yards than this per game. He’s now going on the road in Green Bay against a Packers team that really struggles against the run. I think this is a heavy Derrick Henry game, which will lead to a low passing total for Tannehill, who has gone under this in four of his seven starts this season.
Where to bet: -120 at BetMGM Sportsbook
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