With the regular season winding down, the Yankees return home for one final homestand: six games against the last-place Chicago White Sox and Baltimore Orioles. Since Aug. 5, New York has posted the best record in baseball, riding a month-and-a-half surge back into contention.
They still trail the Toronto Blue Jays by three games in the AL East, with Toronto holding the head-to-head tiebreaker. That means the Yankees would need to go at least 5-1 while hoping the slumping Blue Jays stumble to a 2-4 finish or worse. It’s a tall order, but Toronto’s schedule down the stretch is far from forgiving.
Toronto closes the season with a six-game homestand against two motivated opponents: the desperate Boston Red Sox and a gritty Tampa Bay Rays squad eager to play spoiler.
The Blue Jays will see Boston’s top three starters in Garrett Crochet, Brayan Bello, and Lucas Giolito in a series that could decide October baseball. The Red Sox currently hold the second Wild Card spot and would be slated to visit the Bronx if the season ended today. But the season doesn’t end today, and with just a one-game cushion, Boston is just as close to punching a playoff ticket as it is to an early trip to Cancun. If the Yankees take care of business, the Toronto-Boston series will ultimately decide New York’s playoff seeding and first-round opponent
The Yankees open their homestand against 2025 All-Star Shane Smith, who held them to two runs over 6.1 innings with seven strikeouts on Aug. 30. Luis Gil will get the ball in the opener, followed by Max Fried and Will Warren in games two and three.
New York took three of four from Chicago just three weeks ago, and anything short of a sweep this time would be a letdown. The White Sox have dropped eight of their last nine, making this series a prime opportunity to build momentum. With a tougher matchup against Baltimore looming, minimizing any slip-ups against Chicago is critical to keeping their division hopes alive.
According to FanGraphs, the Yankees have just a 13.7% chance to win the division, and by Friday morning, we’ll have a much clearer sense of where they stand. Even if the East slips out of reach, matchups against Trevor Rogers and Kyle Bradish should serve as a valuable playoff tune-up. Over the weekend, the two arms combined to allow only one run on three hits across 12 innings, good for a 0.75 ERA.
Now, with just six games left, the Yankees’ path is clear. Handle their business at home, hope Toronto continues to stumble, and be ready for October, no matter the opponent.
