As the leaves begin to change, the air grows crisp, and the days grow shorter, the Bronx is bracing for the return of playoff baseball. And with October on the horizon, one big question looms: Who will be the Yankees’ third starter in the postseason rotation?
Since Gerrit Cole went down with a UCL injury, New York has been searching for someone to step up. Even without their ace, the rotation has held strong, ranking fourth in ERA (3.67), 12th in WHIP (1.22), third in opponents’ batting average (.227), and 10th in starting pitching WAR (0.9).
Will Warren, Ryan Yarbrough, Cam Schlittler, and Luis Gil have all answered the call at times, but each comes with a concern. Warren’s ability to handle the big stage, Yarbrough’s inconsistency, Gil’s command issues, and Schlittler’s lack of experience, with fewer than 15 major league starts, will all weigh heavily in Aaron Boone’s decision.
Will Warren has struggled against the AL East contenders this season. In three starts against the Red Sox, he’s allowed 15 runs over 14.1 innings, posting a 9.42 ERA while giving up at least four runs each time. His lone outing against the Blue Jays wasn’t much better, allowing eight runs on 10 hits in just four innings. Against the rest of the current AL playoff field, however, Warren has been far more effective, pitching to a 2.49 ERA across 21.2 innings and letting up less than two runs or fewer in each start. Even so, his track record suggests he may be better suited for a long-relief role out of the bullpen in October.
Much like Warren, Yarbrough has only an outside-looking-in chance at grabbing a postseason start. While the veteran left-hander has postseason experience on his resume, he hasn’t started a game since suffering an oblique injury on June 18. Since returning, Boone has used him almost exclusively in shorter stints, shifting his role more toward a matchup arm or long reliever than a traditional starter. Yarbrough’s craftiness and ability to handle pressure spots still give him value in October, but it’s safe to assume his impact will come from the bullpen, where his versatility and change-of-pace style could be an asset against deep playoff lineups.
Now the question is simple. Who do the Yankees trust more?
Gil was hit hard in his season debut on Aug. 3, but since then, he has settled in. Over his next seven starts, he went at least five innings each time while allowing two runs or fewer. The concern, however, remains the same: walks. He owns a 1.40 WHIP, a 5.9 BB/9, and a career-low 1.26 K/BB ratio, with a 4.09 FIP that shows he’s been getting lucky more than dominant. Free passes don’t play in October, and the last postseason was proof. Across two starts, Gil lasted only four innings each time and posted a 1.63 WHIP.
Still, there are reasons for optimism. Against Boston, he’s been at his best, posting a 0.99 ERA across five career starts, including six no-hit innings this past weekend. In 27.1 innings against the Red Sox, he’s surrendered only three runs. He also turned in six innings of one-run ball against Toronto earlier this month. If Gil can harness his stuff and limit the walks, his track record against division rivals gives the Yankees something to think about when deciding their postseason rotation.
The only two AL starters in the second half with an ERA under 2.90 and at least nine strikeouts per nine innings? Tarik Skubal and Cam Schlittler. Schlittler’s arrival in the Yankees’ rotation has been more than just promising; both traditional and advanced metrics suggest he’s doing more than simply holding his own.
Over 11 starts and 56 innings in 2025, he carries a 3.05 ERA with a 1.32 WHIP, striking out 26.7% of batters while issuing walks at a 10.2% clip. Schlittler has gone at least five innings in all but two starts, notched six or more strikeouts seven times, and five of his starts came against teams currently leading their divisions, showing he can succeed against top competition.
Historically, he joins an elite group of Yankee rookies since 2000, Joba Chamberlain, Masahiro Tanaka, and Luis Severino, who posted an ERA below 3.10 through their first 11 starts. Armed with a 98 mph four-seam fastball and an 87.9 mph sweeper, the second-fastest sweeper in MLB this season, Schlittler makes righty-righty matchups extremely difficult. He has also excelled on the road, posting a 1.99 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP away from Yankee Stadium. Schlittler’s consistency, strikeout ability, and success against top competition make him a strong candidate for a key postseason role.
When it comes down to October, the choice for the Yankees’ third starter comes down to Gil and Schlittler. Gil has shown flashes of brilliance, particularly against division rivals, but his control issues remain a massive concern.
Schlittler, meanwhile, has combined consistency, elite strikeout ability, and success against top competition, though his inexperience in high-pressure playoff situations is a factor. For a team with championship aspirations, giving up free bases will not be an option, making Schlittler the likely choice for the Game 3 start. With each pitcher getting two more starts before the postseason, the decision will almost certainly come down to the wire.
