Grammy predictions: Who will win the 2016 awards?

Last year, it was “Morning Phase” by Beck upsetting Beyoncé’s self-titled album. The year before, it was Daft Punk doubling up with Record and Album of the Year. And the year before that, it was the coronation of Gotye, winner for Record of the Year with “Somebody That I Used to Know” (which was followed by the disappearance of Gotye from the American music scene).

Predicting the Grammys can feel akin to predicting the result of a roulette spin.

The arrival of the 2016 edition of the Grammys brings with it some intriguing questions. Has Taylor Swift fully earned the love of the Academy? Will voters finally recognize Kendrick Lamar as, at worst, one of the two most vital hip-hop artists working today? And do the powers-that-be hear “Uptown Funk” and think of it as an homage or a rip-off of 1980s R&B?

Here’s a guide to the “big four” categories, along with samples from the genre-specific awards, with one foolhardy set of predictions based on history, chart performance and a sneaking suspicion that this is the Year of the #Squad