Kathy Hochul holds a commanding lead over Republican challenger U.S. Rep. Elise Stefanik in New York’s November 2026 general election.
According to a new Siena College poll out Tuesday, Hochul’s 20-point lead represents a five-point drop from the previous poll on the race taken in September, and a closer look at the numbers shows some cause for concern for the Democratic governor.
The Siena poll found that Hochul is leading Stefanik, an upstate lawmaker and close ally of President Trump, 52%-32%. It was the first poll on the governor’s race since Stefanik launched her bid for the state’s chief executive post on Nov. 7.
Still, the new number is five points less than the 25-point edge she held over the Congress member in Siena’s last poll in September. Moreover, Hochul’s favorability rating in the new poll (43% favorable, 45% unfavorable) also slipped about 3 points from September (45% favorable, 42% unfavorable).
Hochul is getting a primary challenge from Lieutenant Gov. Antonio Delgado, and the Siena poll released Tuesday shows her far ahead, with a 40-point lead on her one-time ally.
“Although Hochul saw both her favorability and job approval ratings slip a little, she continues to dominate Delgado among Democrats in a potential primary, and she maintains a strong lead over Stefanik the week after Stefanik declared her candidacy,” said Siena College pollster Steven Greenberg in a statement.
Stefanik is the early favorite to win the Republican party’s gubernatorial nomination, though other challengers, including Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman and U.S. Rep. Mike Lawler, are also considering joining the race. Neither Blakeman nor Lawler was part of the new Siena survey.
amNewYork reached out to Hochul’s and Stefanik’s campaigns and is awaiting responses from both.
Greenberg noted that while Hochul continues to lead Stefanik among Democrats by a wide margin, 78%-9%, she has lost ground among Republicans and Independents since Siena’s last survey.
“Stefanik has now widened her lead among Republicans, 79-11%, up from 68-15% in September, and significantly narrowed the gap among independents, with whom Hochul now leads 40%-36%, down from 43%-25% in September,” he said.
Hochul is ahead of Stefanik by 42% in the five boroughs, but only holds a 9% advantage in the city’s suburbs and a slight three-point edge upstate.
Siena conducted its latest poll of 802 New York State Registered Voters between Nov. 10 and 12. The survey has a margin of error of +/- 4.0%.
