Welcome to the Daily Dish, where we give you our MLB best bets for the day.

Below you’ll find the games our betting model thinks give you the best chance at betting wins for the day. This means we won’t just give you the bets most likely to win but those that will win at odds that make it worth betting. We could tell you that a -235 favorite will win, but if you have to bet $235 just to win $100, that’s not a smart bet.

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MLB Best Bets for August 22nd

We finished last week under .500 at 21-26-2. It was a solid rebound from a bad start to the week, and sometimes there are just series in baseball that are really tough to pin down. We’re still comfortably above .500 on the season, so we’ll look to expand that this week.

We only have two games on the moneyline and, admittedly, one of them is cheating. The STL ML (-168) has been bet up from where it started in the morning, and I’d really only play this in a parlay now. The -168 odds mean you need to bet $168 just to win $100, which isn’t a great return, but the model feels confident in the Cardinals with Jordan Montgomery on the mound, projecting them to win by 2.18 runs. It could even make STL -1.5 a good play.

MIA ML (-140) is the other play, but it’s tough to back the Marlins right now. Their offense really isn’t performing well, but they get a good chance to put up runs today against Adam Oller with Edward Cabrera on the hill for Miami. In fact, given how good Cabrera has been and how bad Miami’s offense has been, the model sees this coming in at 5.59 total runs, which makes MIA/OAK U7 (-121) one of our picks as well.

There are two games I like on the runline that both happen to be plus-odds bets NYM -1.5 (+107) and TB -1.5 (+100). The Yankees have been atrocious of late, and maybe they will get up for the Subway Series, but the model and I believe in Max Scherzer. The model has the Mets winning by 2.52 total runs, which is enough cushion for the RL here.

The model also thinks we should be picking on this poor Angels offense and mediocre MLB starter Tucker Davidson since it has Tampa Bay winning by 2.15 runs. With how well Jeffrey Springs has been pitching. I believe that.

Lastly, we end with two over plays: ATL/PIT O9 (1-05) and MIL/LAD O7.5 (-120). The Dodger game is the biggest run difference with Vegas on the board since it projects this game ends with 9.48 total runs. That’s almost two runs above the line and not a shock considering how good the Dodgers offense has been of late. I know it’s hard to bet the over with Lauer and Urias on the mound, but I’m going to trust it.

Roansy Contreras has also been inconsistent for the Pirates, and Jake Odorizzi just got hit around in his last start. Pittsburgh can be feisty, and the model calls for this to finish with 9.82 total runs, which is a bit too close to nine for my liking, but the line was at 8.5 at the start of the day, so a lot of people are confident in this play. Perhaps we end in a push as a worst case? That wouldn’t be too bad.