Cincinnati Bengals vs Baltimore Ravens: Sunday Night Football preview, picks, top prop bets, more

Two division rivals face off in a crucial game to avoid falling below .500 as the Bengals travel to Baltimore to take on the Ravens in Week 5’s Sunday Night Football showdown.

Cincinnati Bengals (2-2) at Baltimore Ravens (2-2)

Game Details:

Location: M&T Bank Stadium in Baltimore, MD
Time: Sunday, October 9th at 8:20 p.m. ET
Channel: NBC

Betting Stats:

SPREAD: BAL -3.5
OVER/UNDER: 47.5

Despite the Bengals being the reigning AFC champs, the Ravens are the current favorites to win the AFC North. Will the Bengals go on the round and make a statement on Sunday night?

Preview:

Cincinnati started off the season poorly, losing to the Steelers and Cowboys, albeit both in close games. They then, understandably, bounced back with a win against the Jets in Week 3 and then a 27-15 win against Miami after the Dolphins lost quarterback Tua Tagovailoa to a head injury in the second quarter of that game.

To Cincinnati’s credit, quarterback Joe Burrow has also improved his play over the last two games, throwing five touchdowns with no turnovers while his yards per attempt increased from 6.0 to 8.4. He’s also only been sacked three times over those two games, which could also just be because he’s not facing the Steelers’ and Cowboys’ defense.

The Ravens’ defense has the reputation to match the best defenses in football, but they have let the team down when it matters most this year, blowing two big leads already. They allowed 21 consecutive points to the Dolphins in a 42-38 loss in Week 2 and then allowed Buffalo to score 20 unanswered points in last week’s 23-20 loss.

The defense is going to need to put together a complete performance against Joe Burrow and this impressive group of receivers. The Bengals rank No. 16 offensively, averaging 346.8 yards per game with Tee Higgins pacing the team with 315 yards receiving and two touchdowns. Star Ja’Marr Chase isn’t far behind with 293 yards and two touchdowns, and slot receiver Tyler Boyd has 202 yards and two touchdowns, so it’s a bit of a “pick your poison” problem when defending the Bengals.

That could be a problem for the Ravens who are allowing a league-high 44.3 passes per game against the Ravens and have also allowed 7.1 yards per attempt, which is 23rd in the NFL.

The Bengals will undoubtedly take to the air because they have been atrocious at running the ball this year. They’re 31st in yards per attempt with 3.8 yards, 31st in Expected Points Added (EPA) per rush, and dead last in run success rate. Even Joe Mixon isn’t able to make any ground running behind this offensive line right now, but the Ravens have also struggled to defend the run, ranking 23rd in yards allowed per attempt at five yards per carry, so maybe this is the week Mixon gets on track.

When the Ravens have the ball, you know who to look out for. Baltimore ranks 12th offensively, averaging 359.3 yards per game with Lamar Jackson accounting for more than 80% of their total yards. On the season, Jackson has thrown for 893 and run for 316. He leads the NFL in touchdown passes with 11 and is third in the league in QBR (79.2).

Part of that success has come because of how improved Jackson is against the blitz. Against the Dolphins and Patriots, Jackson was blitzed a combined 32 times, but he racked up 537 yards with seven touchdowns and just one interception. The Bills went the other way and tried to just rush four linemen, but Jackson was also able to rush for 70 yards on the ground without the added pressure.

On the season, Jackson has only been pressured on 17.5% of his dropbacks, which is the sixth-lowest mark among starting QBs. As a result, Jackson has the fourth-longest average time to throw this season, which has helped him to put up his huge numbers.

The Bengals will have to find out how to pressure Jackson without sending too many extra rushers. However, on the season, the Bengals have blitzed 17.2% of the time, and even though they rank 16th in pressure rate, they might find more success now that Ravens’ left tackle Ronnie Stanley is out again.

The Ravens will also be without top receiver Rashod Bateman, who is sidelined with a foot injury. That means Jackson will have to rely on stud tight end Mark Andrews, a now healthy running back JK Dobbins, and acting number one receiver Devin Duvernay.

However, Baltimore has been able to find a way to continuously win at home in primetime games, going 18-2 in home primetime games under head coach John Harbaugh, so perhaps betting against them is foolish?

Picks:

Player Props:

JK Dobbins over 11.5 receiving yards

Let’s start with the easy part: Rashod Bateman is out today, so Lamar Jackson will need somebody else to throw to. Justice Hill is also out, so Dobbins should get the vast majority of running back snaps. Oh, and JK Dobbins has hit this line in both of his games this season. The Cincinnati defense allowed Tony Pollard to catch four passes for 55 yards, and Breece Hall to collect six receptions for 53 yards in Week 3, so this feels like a smart bet to me.

SPORTSBOOK: BET AVAILABLE AT (-115) ON BET MGM OR BETRIVERS

Joe Mixon Over 60.5 rushing yards

But Zac Taylor loves to give Joe Mixon the ball. The Cincinnati running back has the second-most carries in football with 81 through four weeks. It’s rare to see a 20+ carry running back projected for under 60 rushing yards against an average defense. Yes, the Ravens are average right now. While they allow just 109 rushing yards per game, only four other teams have seen fewer rush attempts than Baltimore, so their success has been more because of game script and weakness in the secondary. Cincinnati scored 41 points in both games against the Ravens last season, so I expect this to be high scoring.

SPORTSBOOK: BET AVAILABLE AT (-110) ON BET MGM OR (-113) ON FANDUEL

Lamar Jackson Over 1.5 passing touchdowns

We covered above just how good Lamar Jackson has been this season and how much the Ravens ask him to do. That will obviously continue on Sunday night, but I’m not sure being without Rashod Bateman means he won’t throw for touchdowns. He still has Andrews, Duvernay, and Dobbins, plus rookie tight end Isaiah Likely, who flashed in the preseason. If we expect this game to be high-scoring then I expect Jackson to get his touchdowns.