The two favorites in the AFC face off in Kansas City on Sunday afternoon when the Buffalo Bills go on the road to take on the Chiefs.

Buffalo Bills (4-1) @ Kansas City Chiefs (4-1)

Game Details:

Location: Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, MO
Time: Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET
Channel: CBS

Betting Stats:

SPREAD: BUF -2.5
OVER/UNDER: 54

The last time we saw these two teams play, they were putting on perhaps the greatest show we’ve seen in a decade. Unfortunately for the Bills, that game ended with an improbable Chiefs comeback win and the cementing of “13 seconds” as another heartbreak for Buffalo fans. So what can we expect for an encore?

Top Matchups/Storylines:

Who Wins the Battle of MVP Frontrunners?

We can’t start talking about this game without discussing the quarterbacks, who are currently the top two favorites for the NFL MVP award.

Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes have continued to play at elite levels all season despite Mahomes playing without Tyreek Hill and Allen dealing with injuries on the offensive line and to pass-catchers like Gabe Davis, Dawson Knox, and Jamison Crowder. Allen leads the league in passing yards with 1,652, but Mahomes is hot on his heels in 4th with 1,398. Mahomes leads the league with 15 passing TDs, but Allen is just one behind. Mahomes is 2nd in passer rating, while Allen is 4th, so it’s hard to find a leaderboard that isn’t filled with their names.

Each of them is the engine that drives their offense and will be crucial to their team’s ability to put points on the board. When Buffalo flustered Mahomes in Arrowhead last October, holding him to 272 yards passing with two intereptions, they cruised to an 18-point victory. However, in the playoff loss, Mahomes threw for 378 yards and three touchdowns with no interceptions to lead his team back to victory.

In the two games last year against the Chiefs, Josh Allen threw for 644 yards and seven touchdowns with no interceptions, while also rushing for 127 yards and another score. If the Bills get another performance like that from him, it would likely cement his status as MVP frontrunner.

Will the Bills Blitz Patrick Mahomes?

A big question coming into this game will be how the Bills defend Mahomes. Historically, they have not blitzed him, choosing to send a blitz about a third as often as they do against every other quarterback in the NFL. Instead, Buffalo has set back and played a deep zone to try to take away the big play with Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill. However, now that Hill is gone, will that change?

Patrick Mahomes is still one of the best quarterbacks in the league against the blitz, generating a+206.1 passing Expected Points Against vs the blitz since 2018, more than double any other QB. The Buffalo Bills have blitzed the second-fewest times in the NFL this season, with just a 13.5% blitz rate, so it seems likely that they won’t change too much about the way they cover Mahomes.

This has led to rushing success for Mahomes, though, as he has been the Chiefs’ leading rusher in each of the last two games, going over 60 yards in both contests. He converted a few back-breaking first down runs on 3rd-and-long, so if the Bills are going to give him those opportunities to keep drives alive, it might come back to burn them.

Can the Bills’ Healthy Offense Exploit Two Key Chiefs’ Weaknesses?

So far this season, the Chiefs are 19th in the NFL in pass DVOA. They’ve allowed the 9th-most passing yards in the league and are tied with the Titans with the most passing touchdowns allowed, 12 in five games. They also only have one interception on the season, so all of that would seem to set up a big game for Josh Allen and the Bills.

However, the Chiefs have also not been allowing too many big plays. They allow just 9.8 yards per completion, which is the 6th-fewest in the NFL. The Bills are 3rd in the league with 14 plays over 25 yards, so the Chiefs will likely key in on stopping that, especially with what Gabe Davis did to them last season. That may open up the middle of the field for Stefon Diggs, Isaiah McKenzie, and Dawson Knox, and the Bills will need to take advantage.

The Bills will also need to take advantage in the Red Zone, where they Chiefs have allowed a touchdown on 13 of their 16 defensive trips. You need touchdowns not field goals to beat Patrick Mahomes, so if the Bills can take advantage of the Chiefs’ current lack of success in the Red Zone, it could be a deciding factor.

Do the Bills Even Attempt to Run?

The Bills have struggled to run the ball with anybody other than Allen this year and now face a Chiefs defense that is 8th in rush DVOA. They are 9th in the NFL allowing just 4.1 yards per carry and allow the third-fewest yards per game on the ground. Given how poorly the Buffalo offensive line has graded out as run blockers, will the Chiefs dare the Bills to beat them on the ground? If they do, will the Bills be able to?

How Will Kaiir Elam Respond?

In our studs and duds column from last week’s game against the Steelers, we covered how much the Steelers picked on rookie Kaiir Elam. The Bills’ first-round pick had been solid so far this season, but getting beaten like that by a rookie quarterback had to catch Mahomes’ attention.

Even if Christian Benford is able to return from his fractured hand, you can expect Mahomes to go right at either rookie cornerback. He may not have Tyreek Hill anymore, but Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Mecole Hardman have the speed to take one pass the distance if there is a breakdown in coverage. Buffalo will likely be using a lot of focus to take away Travis Kelce, so the cornerbacks are going to have to step up against the Chiefs’ receiving corps if they want to have a chance to pull this game out.