Wide right. The Music City Miracle. 13 seconds. The Buffalo Bills have found almost every way to lose games in the National Football League. Sunday they invented a new way.
After the defense seemed to secure a win by stuffing Kirk Cousins at the half-yard line on a fourth and goal with 45 seconds left, the Bills lined up for a QB sneak. All Josh Allen needed to do was fall forward out of the end zone to avoid a safety and keep the clock running.
According to NextGen Stats, the Bills had a 99.1% chance of winning the game.
Instead, center Mitch Morse snapped the ball into his butt and the Vikings jumped on it for a touchdown, overcoming a 17-point deficit to take a 30-27 lead. Buffalo was still able to tie the game and force overtime, but the Vikings drove down the field, converting on multiple third downs to kick a field goal and take a 33-30 lead.
With the Buffalo offense back on the field, Josh Allen scrambled twice for 37 yards and then connected with Stefon Diggs twice to get the Bills down to Minnesota’s 20-yard line. A touchdown would win them the game.
Instead, Josh Allen threw his second end zone interception, and Buffalo lost 33-30.
So what can we take away from this game
1. Josh Allen Looks Healthy but Struggles Persist
For much of the week, Josh Allen wasn’t expected to play after he was diagnosed with a UCL sprain following an injury last week against the Jets. However, not only did Allen play, but he looked like himself, completing 29-of-43 passes for 330 yards while rushing for 84 yards on six carries.
He repeatedly bowled over defenders. He pushed the ball down the field. It was hard to tell there was anything wrong with his elbow. However, he still continued to make the same mistakes that have been plaguing him of late.
The interception to end the game was a terrible throw without a clear target. He appeared to be throwing to Gabe Davis, but the pass was badly underthrown and into traffic. On his other interception, he seemed to miss Patrick Peterson altogether. Between those throws and the fumbled exchange, Allen has continued to make too many mistakes in crucial situations.
Of course, he’s the main reason Buffalo even has a chance to win many of these games, but this recent string of poor decisions comes after a truly inspiring stretch of play, and we have to wonder whether that peak Allen stretch was too good to be true.
2. Buffalo Spreads the Wealth on Offense (until it doesn’t)
Buffalo came out of the gates moving the ball well and getting everybody involved. Devin Singletary was featured prominently in the rushing attack with James Cook mixing in and Allen completing passes to Stefon Diggs, Gabe Davis, Isaiah McKenzie, Kahlil Shakir, Nyheim Hines, and Dawson Knox.
It seemed like the Bills were making a concerted effort to spread the ball around, and it was working. The team scored 27 points in the first half and built up a 17-point lead.
Then it stopped.
In the first half, the Bills ran 17 times for 116 yards, which was 6.8 yards per-carry. In the second half, Buffalo seemed to forget about that balance, giving Devin Singletary just five carries and James Cook three. In fact, Singletary didn’t receive a single carry in the fourth quarter, which is inexcusable with Buffalo up and trying to cement the game.
Isaiah McKenzie seemed to phase out of the game plan, and Nyheim Hines, who the team was so excited about acquiring at the deadline, didn’t even half a second-half touch on offense. The Bills gave up assets to bring him onto this team and it’s been two weeks now of Hines not being utilized at all.
The Bills, as they have all season, dumped the hopes for their entire offense on the shoulders of Josh Allen and, this time, that weight crushed him and this offense.
3. Bills Red Zone Struggles Continue
Buffalo came into this game 19th in red zone success rate, converting just 53.6% of red zone visits into touchdowns. Last year, they led the NFL by converting 66.3% of their visits into touchdowns.
That just got worse on Sunday, with the Bills making six trips to the red zone but converting for touchdowns on just three trips.
The final two visits to the red zone were the most problematic. In the fourth quarter, the Bills had 2nd and two from the Minnesota seven-yard line. At that point, the Bills as a team had rushed for 137 yards on 5.7 yards per carry, but offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey called three straight pass plays. On the fourth down play, Josh Allen scrambled out of the pocket and made another poor decision, as he has in recent weeks, getting picked off in the end zone by Patrick Peterson.
It was a pivotal moment in the game in which Buffalo could have put the game on ice but simply failed to execute. Again.
Then, in overtime, Josh Allen threw the pick we discussed above. He now has four red zone interceptions in his last two games. Meanwhile, Devin Singletary converted two red zone rushing touchdowns today. Perhaps it’s time that Ken Dorsey and the Bills allow the rest of the offense to get involved in the red zone more regularly.
4. Bills Have Struggled in the Second Half
Buffalo hasn’t scored a second-half touchdown since their win over the Chiefs in Week 6. That’s a problem. They scored three points in the second half against the Packers, three points in the second half against the Jets, and now six points on two field goals against the Vikings.
Defenses are adjusting at halftime, and the Bills are falling into the old trap of just letting Josh Allen try to carry them across the finish line. It’s not working, and it’s not going to start magically working in the playoffs. This coaching staff needs to look long and hard at the adjustments – or lack thereof – coming out of the break and see where they can be better.
5. Buffalo’s Secondary Needs to Get Healthy – Fast
Coming into the game, Buffalo was without safety Jordan Poyer, defensive end Gregory Rousseau, cornerback Kaiiir Elam, and still without cornerback Tre’Davious White. During the game, the Bills lost linebacker Tremaine Edmunds to a groin injury. Injuries have been a story for much of the season, but it showed up big time on Sunday in the loss to the Vikings.
With the aforementioned injuries, Dane Jackson was on the field for 100% of Buffalo’s snaps. Rookie sixth-round corner Christian Benford was on the field for 96% of snaps, and former practice squad cornerback turned safety Cam Lewis was on the field for 95% of snaps. When you also add backup safety Damar Hamlin having to play 98% of snaps, you see the full picture of a secondary that is in disarray.
As a result, Justin Jefferson just repeatedly torched this Buffalo secondary, taking advantage of Jackson and Benford multiple times and baiting Benford into two huge penalties. He also ripped a catch away from Lewis, who is a converted cornerback, on 4th and 18 with the game on the line.
Had Lewis, who got two hands on this ball, just batted it down, the game would have been over. But just like with DeAndre Hopkins last year, the Buffalo defender went for an interception, and Jefferson made one of the best catches you’ll ever see.
This Buffalo secondary has been dealt a tough hand with all the injuries, but good teams find a way to respond. This team desperately needs Jordan Poyer and Tre’Davious White back on the field because these next two games against the Browns and the Lions are games the Bills absolutely have to win if they want any chance of winning the AFC or just the AFC East.
