The Mets have significantly larger fish to fry this offseason, but Francisco Alvarez has reportedly made it known that he wouldn’t mind working out a deal to keep him in Queens for the long haul.
A report from Newsday’s Tim Healey revealed that the 22-year-old is open to long-term contract extension talks, though it isn’t a pressing matter for either side to approach if the logistics don’t lend themselves to create such an opportunity this winter.
But Alvarez’s desire to talk about such a deal does offer new president of baseball operations David Stearns to sign one of the most promising young catchers in baseball to a team-friendly deal through his prime.
In his first full season in the pros, Alvarez posted a .721 OPS with 25 home runs and 63 RBI, though it was rife with inconsistencies that featured multiple weeks-long slumps. The flashes of an elite-level catcher, though, are already there. He hit the most home runs by a catcher under the age of 22 since Hall of Famer Johnny Bench hit 26 in 1969. No other catcher under 22 in the history of Major League Baseball has hit more than 20.
His defense still needs developing, but his framing ranked in MLB’s 95th percentile in 2023.
Considering his age, Stearns and the Mets should have no issue offering a deal of approximately eight years — even if it is to a player at the position that provides the most wear and tear. Such a deal would keep Alvarez in Queens through his prime and if he were to continue his upward trajectory toward superstardom, an even larger contract in terms of value (not necessarily years) could be waiting for him on the other side of it.
Given the MLB catcher’s market right now, Alvarez’s place is well below the top tier of JT Realmuto or Salvador Perez, both of whom are making more than $20 million per year. A more realistic place for extension talks should be near the $8 million-$9 million per season range, which would put the entirety of his deal between $64 million and $72 million.
For a player who was MLB’s top-ranked prospect just one year ago and is expected to be a perennial All-Star, those are significantly team-friendly figures. It’s also a tactic that teams around baseball have been using of late. The Atlanta Braves famously signed Ronald Acuna to an early eight-year, $100 million deal that looks like a steal, especially after he unanimously won the NL MVP Award by becoming the first player ever to record a 40/70 season.
Stearns’ old club, the Milwaukee Brewers, also just signed their top prospect — and MLB’s No. 1 overall prospect — 19-year-old Jackson Chourio to an eight-year, $82 million deal before he even played a single game in the majors.
It’s a buy-low tactic that has its risk if the player doesn’t pan out, but it’s something the Mets could be mulling over this winter. However, they have other pressing matters on their checklist that feature the pursuit of Yoshinobu Yamamoto, the bolstering of their bullpen, the acquisition of a legitimate designated hitter and left fielder, and perhaps even working out an extension for slugger Pete Alonso, who is entering his walk year.
