MLB Over/Under Bet of the Day
New York Mets at San Francisco Giants
First pitch: 9:45 p.m. ET
Probable pitchers: David Peterson (1-0, 1.89 ERA) vs. Alex Cobb (3-1, 5.61 ERA)
Wow, a very uncommon Oracle Park total has been attached to this series opener.
Games emanating from pitcher-friendly San Francisco don’t normally teeter above the 7.5 mark, yet the linesmakers are opting to do so here despite tonight’s affair featuring a pair of very solid starters.
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David Peterson arrived in The Show just a couple of years ago during the pandemic-shortened campaign and has mostly served as a steady hand when called upon. Last season may not have looked like a bright one at first glance (2-6, 5.54 ERA in ‘21) but he did pitch to the tune of a 3.93 xFIP while compiling a noteworthy 9.32 K/9. That’s enough evidence to believe that Peterson certainly wasn’t bad.
Either way, the left-hander has been looking sharp thus far even despite (wrongfully) being shuttled back and forth between the Mets and Triple-A Syracuse. While he’s been active on the Major League club, Peterson’s converted five assignments into desirable numbers (1.89 ERA, 1.11 WHIP across 19 innings) and is impressively limiting hitters to a .194 clip.
Yeah, Peterson doesn’t get the amount of fanfare enjoyed by teammate and fellow youngster Tylor Megill (who deserves it), but that’s something that we’ll use to our advantage. If Megill was the Amazin’s starter tonight, this over/under undoubtedly would not be as high as 8.
The former first-round draft pick is also getting a favorable matchup based on this opponent’s tendencies against left-handers. San Francisco ranks in the bottom third of baseball in team batting average opposite southpaws (.224), possibly ceding an extra edge to Peterson.
Let’s also feel comfortable with the presence of Alex Cobb. Though he enters this outing with an unattractive 5.61 ERA, the veteran right-hander has been far, better than that if you look at his advanced metrics. In fact, they’re staggeringly different, which indicates more of his better work to come a lot sooner than later. Just look and salivate at Cobb’s 1.75 xERA, 2.67 FIP and 2.36 xFIP.
Really, it was only one poor performance at Coors Field last time out that inflated the overall numbers Cobb is wielding. That can happen to any pitcher, though, in that bandbox, and considering he was churning out quality results prior to that, he’s worthy of deploying for a low score.
Cobb actually faced New York earlier in the season, and while he didn’t really fare well in that first meeting, it’s worth pointing out that turn in the rotation came on the road. To maximize our likelihood of a decent showing from Cobb, we’d rather have him by the Bay than anywhere else.
Even while pitching for a handful of teams throughout his 12-year career, Cobb has exhibited significantly more consistency when pitching at home. His 3.44 ERA and 1.18 WHIP in 518.1 lifetime innings in front of the home fans easily best the 4.38 ERA and 1.36 WHIP he’s posted across 517.2 innings on the road. This trend continues to ring true in 2022, as Cobb holds a pretty 3.38 ERA when taking the mound at his new team’s pitcher-friendly ballpark.
Another large reason for which I see Cobb going in the right direction is his strikeout rate. Right now, that number currently sits at a career-best 11.22 K/9, and although it’s still early, that’s still very telling considering his previous career-high (9.45 K/9) came only last season. Furthermore, he’s garnering by far the lowest line-drive rate he’s ever churned out (12.5 percent).
A lot of sportsbooks are (wisely) sticking with 7.5 as the over/under but I highly recommend you look elsewhere for that crucial number of 8, such as at Fanduel.
2022 MLB Over/Under Betting Record*: “22-17-5,” +2.57 units
Yesterday’s Result: Braves-Marlins Under 7.5 (WIN)
*Each bet graded as if it were to win 1 unit