The NFL season is off and running. Over these next few weeks, we’ll start to see the contenders separate themselves both in terms of team results and individual awards like the NFL MVP.
Each week we’ll take a look at how the odds are shifting in the NFL MVP race to try to help you identify the best bets or the biggest odds movement that might be best to ignore. While one or two weeks might not be enough to persuade you to change your bet, it’s always a good idea to keep an eye on the shifts in lines to see if it indicates value changes.
So what are the odds after Week 2?
Updated NFL MVP Odds
Josh Allen (+340) remains the betting favorite but has seen his odds go from +400 to +340 in a week’s span, which makes them a little less favorable to bet on since a $10 bet will now only earn you a $340 profit as opposed to a $400 one. Still pretty solid though.
Allen has completed 75.4% of his passes in the first two games of the season as offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey is using the quick-hitting passing game as a fill-in for a rushing attack. The Bills quarterback also has 614 yards passing and seven touchdowns through two games, while also adding 66 yards and a touchdown on the ground.
I think the rushing yards is what most separates Allen from Patrick Mahomes (+460) when it comes to potential NFL MVP voting, but Mahomes has looked equally as good and has also seen his odds jump recently as these two begin to separate themselves from the pack. Mahomes has completed 73% of his passes so far for 595 yards and seven touchdowns, but he has no interceptions as opposed to Allen’s two.
Allen is more mistake-prone, which still makes Mahomes a good bet to take the MVP, but, as I mentioned above, Allen’s rushing upside could be the difference.
Speaking of rushing upside, Jalen Hurts (+1000) has entered the conversation with the third-best odds after Week 2. The Eagles quarterback has completed 70% of his passes for 576 yards on the season. He’s also rushed for 147 yards and three touchdowns, which will be important for him since he only has one touchdown pass through the first two games.
At the end of the day, that’s why I’m not sure Hurts is a good bet here, even with the favorable odds. He has an impressive 9.1 yards per attempt, which is better than Mahomes’ eight or Allen’s 8.9, so he is pushing the ball down the field. But the Eagles don’t like to throw in the red zone, so Hurts will need a large number of large touchdown passes to come close to the yardage and passing touchdowns that Allen and Mahomes will put up.
If you’re going to be on a longshot because of rushing upside, it might just be former MVP Lamar Jackson (+1200). Last week we mentioned that a quarterback has won this award each of the last nine years, so it’s probably your best bet to put your money on a quarterback. Jackson has completed 64.4% of passes so far this year for 531 yards and six touchdowns to just one interception. He’s also rushed for 136 yards and a touchdown and is averaging nine yards per pass attempt, so he’s basically giving you everything Hurts is but with more upside for passing touchdowns, which I think will matter to voters.
