This Saturday’s Kentucky Derby could live up to the nickname of being the greatest two minutes in sports — or even slightly faster than that.
No fewer than five horses have the speed profile to gun for the lead and set a hot tempo early on. Should that fast pace develop, we could see not only closers pick up the pieces late and score a big win but also flirt with a final time of under two minutes — something that has not happened since Monarchos won the Kentucky Derby back in 2001 with a time of 1:59.4, just two-fifths of Secretariat’s track record of 1973.
The morning line favorite, Journalism, is one horse that could come up big in the 1 1/4 mile race in the Kentucky Derby. He’s won three straight races out in California, including the Santa Anita Derby last out, with his last two victories coming with triple-digit Beyer speed figures of 108 and 102, respectively.
Trained by Michael McCarthy and ridden by Michael McCarthy, Journalism impressed in winning both of his Kentucky Derby preps this year with strong late kicks. Though the fields he faced were much smaller than the 20-horse field set to enter the Churchill Downs starting gate this Saturday, his prior experiences running wide and overcoming traffic can only help him get around the gridlock.
The complexion of the field changed Thursday when trainer Bob Baffert announced the scratch of Rodriguez, winner of the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct. As a result, Baeza, the also-eligible horse and runner-up in the Santa Anita Derby, drew into the field.
Then, on Friday, the runner-up in the Wood Memorial, Grande, scratched out of the Kentucky Derby due to a cracked hoof. That reduced the Kentucky Derby field to 19 runners.
Here’s how the field of the 151st Kentucky Derby shakes out:
151st Kentucky Derby
Saturday, May 3
Churchill Downs, Louisville, KY
Purse: $5 million
Conditions: 1 1/4 Miles, dirt; 3-year-old colts and geldings
Post time: 6:57 p.m. ET
Television: NBC/Peacock (coverage begins at 2:30 p.m. ET)
Pace prediction
As the field stands, four frontrunners can set a very quick pace: Citizen Bull, Neoequos,, East Avenue, and Owen Almighty. Expect Citizen Bull and Neoequos, the two inside runners, to scramble out of the gate, potentially putting the squeeze on Final Gambit in the process. Owen Almighty might be afleet of foot coming out of the far outside stall, while East Avenue — if jockey Manny Franco doesn’t try to rate the horse — may also be in the early mix. Baeza can also go to the lead or press the pace while stalking.
The potential is great for a sharp opening quarter of under 23 seconds; a first quarter-mile in 24 seconds or longer would be shocking and favor a frontrunner like Rodriguez going wire to wire. With as many as five horses in the mix for the lead early on, that is an unlikely scenario.
A first half-mile of the Kentucky Derby of under 46 seconds spells trouble for any horse on the lead at that point of the race, in which the field will begin their run down the Churchill Downs backstretch. Inside that quarter-mile backstretch run, expect to see stalkers and closers begin to gather momentum — American Promise, Luxor Cafe, Journalism, Grande, Publisher, Tiztastic, Coal Battle, Sandman and Sovereignty.
With hot fractions early on, the 3/4-mile time could come in under 1 minute, 10 seconds. At that point, the frontrunners will start to bend under the strain. The closers will advance on the far turn, and then it’s a matter of positioning and traffic. American Promise and Journalism figure to be closer to the rail. Grande, Publisher and Tiztastic will likely need to get past some of the backpedaling frontrunners; Coal Battle, Sandman and Sovereignty will potentially be caught wide on the turn — will any of them have the momentum and stamina to grab the lead in the stretch?
Picks to play
Journalism — He’s the best horse in the field, but as we all know, the best horse doesn’t always win the Kentucky Derby. Yet his Derby preps have shown Journalism could win this race with his late closing kick, his pedigree (by Curlin) bred to run forever, and his penchant to win despite wide trips and traffic trouble. Granted, gridlock in a five-horse Santa Anita Derby is nothing like the bumps, shuffles and squeezing of a 20-horse Kentucky Derby field. Traffic trouble might be the only valid excuse if he comes up short Saturday.
American Promise — The biggest horse physically in the field, the chestnut colt trained by 89-year-old legend D. Wayne Lukas blew away the competition seven weeks ago in the Virginia Derby, a one-turn dirt race over 1 1/8 miles. American Promise has yet to flash the kind of speed of a contender, but he’s been coming in fresh off a long layoff and training sharply at Churchill Downs. If he goes off at anywhere near his 30-1 morning odds, it would be a serious steal.
Sovereignty — In his two prep races in Florida, Sovereignty drew the far outside post at Gulfstream Park, a track with a short run into the first turn that usually dooms outside runners. He finished first in the Fountain of Youth Stakes by a nose, but lost next out to the sidelined Tappan Street in the Florida Derby. Even in defeat, Sovereignty showed the ability to close strongly despite a wide trip and traffic trouble, and that makes him a legitimate threat to score a Derby win from, yet again, a far outside post.
LATE BONUS PICKS
With Rodriguez and Grande scratched out of the Kentucky Derby, here are two other picks to consider in the Kentucky Derby:
Sandman — He had been a Derby prospect for a while but came up short in two prior prep races at Oaklawn Park in Arkansas. Then came the Arkansas Derby on March 29 where he finally broke through in a big way. Taking advantage of a hot pace, Sandman closed from far back, made a big move on the final turn, grabbed the lead in the stretch and drew clear. Though he bobbed and weaved in the final furlong, showing greenness, Sandman still looked like a horse who can easily get the 1 1/4 miles of the Kentucky Derby — especially if left to chase a furious early pace.
Coal Battle — If you like a good underdog story, this is your horse. Sold for $70,000 in 2023, Coal Battle came out of nowhere to become a Derby contender winning four straight stakes races in the southwest prior to his third-place finish in the Arkansas Derby. He defeated both Sandman and Publisher handily in the Rebel Stakes two back. His trainer, 72-year-old Lonnie Briley, has never had a Derby starter before; his jockey, Juan Vargas, is also running in his first Derby. Coal Battle’s speed is questionable, but as another closer in the field, he stands a good chance of closing on a hot early pace. Beyond speed figures and past performances, the Kentucky Derby every so often shines on an underdog — Unbridled, Mine That Bird, Funny Cide, California Chrome, just to name a few examples — who comes out of nowhere to beat faster, more regally bred horses. Who knows? Maybe Coal Battle might be the next great Derby story.
