Now it’s Iran in the crosshairs of the president’s all-caps Twitter diplomacy.
We’ve been here. Donald Trump promised fire and fury for North Korea, too, and exchanged insults with leader Kim Jong Un. That toughness, Trump said later, brought North Korea to Singapore for the start of talks about the nation’s denuclearization. Now those negotiations are predictably stalled, and North Korea is trying to hide parts of its nuclear program.
Bluster is not an effective foreign policy.
But Trump tried it again with Iran, promising “CONSEQUENCES THE LIKES OF WHICH FEW THROUGHOUT HISTORY HAVE EVER SUFFERED BEFORE.” He was responding to Iranian President Hassan Rouhani warning the United States not to incite Iranians against their government, and adding that “war with Iran is the mother of all wars.” Provocative, yes, but since when are words alone reason enough to destroy a nation?
In warning Rouhani to “NEVER, EVER” threaten America again or else, Trump left no wiggle room with a more dangerous opponent in a more fraught part of the world.
Iran is far more sophisticated than North Korea. It can do more damage with or without its missiles. The flow of oil from the Middle East is at stake. So is the fragile stability of the region. Complicating matters is Iran’s relationship with Russia; they’re on the same side in Syria. And now that Trump has undermined our relationships within NATO, we might not have our allies behind us — allies who already were upset when Trump pulled out of the Iranian nuclear deal that appeared to be working.
Do we need a new order in the Middle East? Yes, but there’s no evidence Trump has an alternate plan in mind or a way to achieve it. He doesn’t understand complexity, and hasn’t seemed to learn from mistakes caused by his bombast. Playing the bully and going it alone don’t work in the long run. Diplomacy, negotiation and help from friends do.
Ultimately, Iran will change when its people demand that it change. Working to that end, whether via tougher sanctions or some other tools, is the way to go.
The rest is dangerous theater that’s getting more absurd.
