Democratic mayoral nominee and frontrunner Zohran Mamdani would still lead in the November general election, albeit by a far slimmer margin, if the field shrank to a one-on-one bout between himself and rival former Gov. Andrew Cuomo, a new Siena College and New York Times poll released Tuesday found.
The survey of 1,284 registered voters taken between Sept. 2-6 found that Mamdani, a democratic socialist assembly member, holds a four-point advantage over Cuomo among likely voters (48% to 44%) — playing out what could happen if both incumbent Mayor Eric Adams and Republican nominee Curtis Sliwa drop out.
“Cuomo would capture the vast majority of both Adams’ and Sliwa’s current support and win a majority of voters over forty-five,” Siena Research Institute Director Don Levy said. “Mamdani’s overwhelming 22-point lead would shrink to four points.”
Cuomo and Adams are both Democrats running on their own independent lines.
Cuomo’s best (and only) chance to beat Mamdani
Adams has spent the past week trying to tamp down multiple published reports that he is in conversations with President Trump’s top advisers about nabbing a job in the federal administration in exchange for ending his uphill reelection bid.
On Friday, the mayor called reporters up to Gracie Mansion to defiantly insist he is staying in the race. That came hours after his campaign issued a statement in which Adams indicated he would remain a candidate, but also said, “I will always listen if called to serve our country.”
Trump’s close aides are reportedly considering making a similar offer to Sliwa — but the red beret-clad Republican founder of the Guardian Angels maintained he has not been contacted by the White House and has no interest in working for Trump.
Levy said that, given the mayor’s small support, “Cuomo would need both Adams and Sliwa to drop out in order to close the gap.”
Cuomo responded amid his own Tuesday news conference by downplaying the Siena poll and referencing another recent private poll conducted by Tulchin Research that had him beating Mamdani by 11% if Adams and Sliwa were to drop out.
“I think the polls said that in a one-on-one race, depending on the turnout, it was anywhere from I was down four points to up 10,” Cuomo said. “It’s a poll there will be a lot of polls and I don’t think any of them are all that serious.”
“A lot could change in this race, if Adams and/or Sliwa drop out, or Mamdani could continue to ride his support among young voters and voters concerned about economic issues all the way to Gracie Mansion,” Levy added.
Adams, asked during an unrelated Tuesday press conference about why he will not drop out given his lackluster poll numbers, pointed to surveys in the Democratic primary that consistently showed Cuomo in the lead right up until he lost to Mamdani by nealy 13%.
“One would look and rationally believe ‘ok, let’s just do it this way,'” Adams said to the idea of him dropping out to help Cuomo. “There was a one-one-one race, the primary, [Mamdani] beat him by 12%…We bought into all of this before.”
Mamdani dominating the field as it is now
Mamdani is also dominating the current field of four candidates with 46% among likely voters. While his advantage his a plurality and not a majority, it is more than enough to win in less than two months.
With the anti-Mamdani vote split amongst three candidates, Cuomo comes in a distant second at 23%. Behind him is Republican nominee Sliwa, with 15%, and incumbent Mayor Adams is in last place at 9%.
“Mamdani holds a huge lead among younger voters while voters forty-five and older are split between Cuomo and Mamdani in the four-way race,” Levy said in a statement.
The survey found that a plurality of Mamdani voters named the cost-of-living — the central focus of Mamdani’s campaign — as the city’s number one issue.
Dora Pekec, Mamdani’s spokesperson, said the candidate’s commanding lead shows that his campaign’s relentless focus on affordability continues to resonate with voters.
“New York City is not for sale,” Pekec said. “The backroom scheming from Donald Trump and the billionaire class is backfiring, as New Yorkers see Zohran Mamdani is the only candidate who will fight to make the most expensive city in the country more affordable. Our campaign is busy building a movement that puts working people first – mobilizing thousands to get involved in the democratic process and fight for a new kind of politics.”
Spokespeople for Cuomo and Adams did not immediately comment on the poll.
Mamdani also leads across many other demographic categories in the four-way field, including men, women, white, Black, and Hispanic voters.
