The Seattle Seahawks look to rebound from their disappointing loss last week when they head home to take on the surging San Francisco 49ers.
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San Francisco 49ers (9-4) @ Seattle Seahawks (7-6)
Game Details:
- Location: Lumen Field in Seattle, WA
- Time: Thursday, December 15th at 8:15 p.m. ET
- Channel: Amazon Prime
Betting Stats:
- SPREAD: SF -3
- OVER/UNDER: 43.5
- MONEYLINE: SF (-190), SEA (+158)
Matchup:
San Francisco has lost two starting quarterbacks this year but they haven’t missed a beat. After Jimmy Garoppolo was lost for the season, Brock Purdy filled in and was impressive in his first start, leading the 49ers to an easy 35-7 win over Tampa Bay while completing 16 of 21 passes for 185 yards, two touchdowns, and no interceptions.
He could be in for another plus matchup as Seattle is conceding an average of 25.7 points, which puts them 30th in the NFL. The pass defense has been improved this season, but they are still 18th in the league. Unfortunately, the 49ers will be without star wide receiver Deebo Samuel, who will be sidelined for up to three weeks with knee and ankle injuries.
That will mean Brandon Aiyuk and George Kittle will need to step up to fill the void. However, the 49ers will likely turn to the run game even more. The team averaged nearly six yards per carry last week against Tampa Bay, and Seattle has been far worse against the run, allowing 160.5 yards per game, which puts them 31st in the NFL. The Seahawks really missed defensive linemen Shelby Harris (illness) and Al Woods (heel) against the Panthers as Carolina ran the ball 46 times for 223 yards and dominated time of possession.
In fact, opposing teams have rushed for at least 161 yards in the last four Seahawks games, and two of those opponents have gone over 200 yards, which means Christian McCaffrey and even Jordan Mason could be in for big games.
On the other side of the ball, San Francisco boasts the league’s top rushing defense, allowing just 75.1 yards per game and 3.4 yards per carry. That could be an issue for a Seattle team that was without both Kenneth Walker III and DeeJay Dallas last week due to injuries. As a result, the Seahawks were outgained 223 to 46 on the ground alone, so it will be vital for them to get one or both of those backs onto the field this week.
However, the 49ers also possess a productive pass rush headlined by Nick Bosa, who is tied for the league lead in sacks with 14.5. San Francisco has endured multiple injuries in the secondary and still ranks 12th in the league against the pass, giving up 212 passing yards per game. They also have more interceptions (14) than touchdown passes allowed (12), which means Geno Smith will be in for a tough evening.
The former Jets castoff has been tremendous this year, passing for 3,433 yards with a 25:8 TD-to-INT ratio, and he has maintained the value of both Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf, but the trio should find the sledding a bit tougher on Thursday night in a crucial game for Seattle’s playoff hopes.
Pick:
49ers 24 Seahawks 17
Top Player Props:
If you’re going to be betting on action besides the spread, here are three player props we like from Thursday night’s game:
George Kittle over 41.5 receiving yards
We already discussed that the 49ers will be without Deebo Samuel, so Kittle becomes an obvious name to step up. The 49ers have attempted 46 passes and 37 rushes by non-quarterbacks in their last two games, so they are Purdy to air it out, and I don’t expect that to change too much on Thursday. According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), Kittle has run the second-most routes (63) on the 49ers in their last two games, and Football Outsiders mentions that tight ends have averaged the 4th-most receiving yards per game against the Seahawks, so fire up Kittle.
Where to bet: You can get this at 38.5 yards on BetMGM right now for -115 so jump at that.
Tyler Lockett under 63.5 receiving yards
With as good as the San Francisco pass defense has been, it’s hard to envision multiple Seahawks receivers having a strong game. That means we need to choose between Lockett and Metcalf. Lockett has been the clear number two wideout lately as Metcalf has led the Seahawks in targets, targets per route run, receptions, and receiving yards. That makes me feel better about banking on Metcalf on Thursday, which means Lockett, who is more of a boom-or-bust option to begin with, may find fewer openings.
Where to bet: -114 on FanDuel
Christian McCaffrey over 119.5 rushing + receiving yards
For players like McCaffrey, I really like the rushing + receiving combination. This would seem to be a great spot for McCaffrey to dominate on the ground, but the 49ers are reluctant to really make him a workhorse back between the tackles. However, they do like to use him a lot out of the backfield and opportunities should be there with Deebo sidelined. As a result, I don’t feel 100% certain HOW the 49ers will use CMC, but I know they will against a vulnerable defense, so I like this play.
Where to bet: -114 at FanDuel Sportsbook
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