Julius Randle is playing his best basketball for the Knicks since the 2020-21 season. The team should respond by trading him.
In December, the power forward is averaging 27.2 points, 9.2 rebounds, and 3.4 assists on 45.7% shooting from the field. He’s also averaging 1.6 turnovers per game after averaging 3.1 per game in November. He’s moving the ball more effectively in the flow of the offense and has been a key to the team’s hot stretch this month.
In many respects, he is fulfilling the role as the primary scorer that the team envisioned for him when he was signed to such a lucrative contract. With New York playing high-level basketball, you could make the argument that the team should double down and surround him with talent that fits his skill set and set themselves up for a playoff run this year.
However, I believe that argument is flawed, as is the general idea of building around Randle. Instead, I would argue that now is the perfect time to trade him.
For starters, while the 28-year-old is flourishing right now, we’ve seen these bursts from him before, but he remains an inconsistent scorer and leader. As we saw in his ejection from the Kings game, Randle is impulsive, both as a player and a personality. He is prone to bouts of “hero ball” and operates out of isolation the 16th-most of any player in the NBA, which often takes the offense out of rhythm.
He also ranks in the 40th percentile when operating in iso sets, scoring on just 41.5% of isolation plays and shooting 38.6% from the field on those. Those marks actually put him in a range similar to Lakers guard Russell Westbrook, who is 39th-percentile in isolation while shooting 39.7% from the field and operating out of isolation on 19% of plays, which is just above Randle’s 16.3%.
Given how much criticism Westbrook has gotten for his offensive inefficiency, the similarity between his numbers and Randle’s is a bit alarming. As a result, it becomes easier to see how Randle’s presence as the primary scorer will always make New York more inconsistent than fans want.
I’ve also argued that New York is playing its best basketball of late because it began giving the team’s best defenders more minutes. That has also helped cover up some of the defensive inefficiencies of both RJ Barrett and Randle, who remains a liability on defense. According to Cleaning the Glass, Randle is in the 1st percentile for opponent’s effective field goal percentage, boosting shooting by 7.6% when he’s on the floor. Yet, he also ranks in the 3rd percentile for opponent’s field goal percentage around the rim, with teams shooting 9.8% better with him in the paint.
If New York chooses to build around him and deal away plus defenders like Immanuel Quickley and/or Cam Reddish, it risks taking crucial steps back on defense.
It’s also important to consider just how realistic New York’s playoff hopes are this season. Yes, the team is currently the 6th seed in the East, but there is little chance of them actually beating the Celtics, Bucks, Cavs, or 76ers in a playoff series, let alone beating multiple of them en route to the NBA Finals.
In order for the Knicks to become a serious contender, they need to choose either to build around their youth or go all in on a Randle-led roster by adding a veteran scorer to their current team. That would involve trading away first-round picks and taking on significant salary, which are both potential issues.
It’s also hard to figure out where the Knicks would add this impactful scorer if they keep Randle around. With Jalen Brunson locked in at point guard and Barrett newly signed to an extension at small forward, the Knicks would need to either replace Quentin Grimes at shooting guard or move on from Mitchell Robinson, who was also just re-signed.
Considering Randle is set to make around $23.7 million per year over the next three years, adding a proven scorer to that starting rotation is a pretty tough needle for the team to thread. Even if they were able to do so, there would be no assurance New York would be good enough to beat those giants in the Eastern Conference, and they would shorten their competition window drastically by dealing away their young talent and/or draft picks.
Instead, it makes more sense for the Knicks to move on from Randle and lean into the youth. Six of the players in the team’s effective new nine-man rotation are players New York drafted, and five of them are still on their rookie scale deals. That youth plus 12 draft picks in the next three years allows the team to build a strong core that could be under controllable contracts for years.
The Knicks also have a ready-made replacement at power forward in Obi Toppin or could make a move for a forward like Kyle Kuzma, who has broken out this year for Washington and has been linked to the Knicks due to his desire to play in a big market and his connections to CAA, where Leon Rose worked before becoming the Knicks’ president. New York has several CAA clients, including Randle, Brunson, Toppin, and Isaiah Hartenstein, so that connection makes sense.
Kuzma is set to be a major free agent target for teams after this season and his $20 million per year asking price would actually be less than the team is paying Randle. The team could thus move Randle for additional picks or expiring contract assets and then make a move for Kuzma and not lose much on the court but also save money to re-sign their youth or add another scorer.
ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski also mentioned the Knicks could have interest in Chicago Bulls’ guard Zach Lavine. LaVine signed a five-year, $215 million max contract over the offseason, so New York would be unable to bring him into the fold unless they rid themselves of Randle’s contract. However, LaVine brings an offense-defense game that could be a great fit at the shooting guard position and then allow Toppin to slide into the starting lineup at power forward.
So if the team does decide to unload Randle, what is the most likely destination?
Many rumors have connected the Knicks and Suns in a deal involving Randle. The Suns could use his scoring and are certainly making a push to win a title now; meanwhile, the Knicks could reportedly bring back Jae Crowder and Dario Saric, who are both on expiring deals, in addition to a draft pick. Crowder would provide elite defense and solid three-point shooting, which are two things this team desperately needs.
Other rumors have suggested Randle could be dealt to the Clippers for a package involving three-point specialist Luke Kennard and defensive specialist Robert Covington.
While none of these options may seem exciting on the surface, they would provide New York with the financial flexibility to build around its emerging young core. At the end of the day, that’s a better bet than doubling down on a mercurial veteran who has let them down before.
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