Two bitter AFC North rivals clash on Monday night when the Cincinnati Bengals take on the Cleveland Browns.
Cincinnati Bengals (4-3) at Cleveland Browns (2-5)
Game Details:
- Location: FirstEnergy Stadium in Cleveland, OH
- Time: Monday, October 31st at 8:15 p.m. ET
- Channel: ESPN
Betting Stats:
- MONEYLINE: CIN ML (-165), CLE ML (+140)
- SPREAD: CIN -3
- OVER/UNDER: 45
Preview:
We have to start by talking about the injury to Ja’Marr Chase. Cincinnati’s star wide receiver will reportedly miss 4-6 weeks because of a hip injury, but he was also not placed on the Injured Reserve, so he might be back sooner than four weeks but certainly will be out on Monday night. Chase is the second-most targeted player this season, is tied for second with six touchdown catches, and is sixth in receiving yards at 605, so it’s clearly a massive loss for this offense.
It comes at a terrible time too as this Cincinnati offense was finally finding their footing in the passing game. The Bengals have the 5th best passing attack in the NFL, averaging 278.7 yards per game. Quarterback Joe Burrow has been hot lately, with 781 passing yards, six touchdowns, and no interceptions in his last two games. He’s also added two rushing touchdowns over that span but now will have to adjust.
Without Chase, the Bengals will rely on Tyler Boyd and Tee Higgins who are both talented in their own right, averaging 15.7 and 14.7 yards per reception respectively. Cincinnati could also look to get more work for tight end Hayden Hurst, who already has 39 receptions for 226 yards on the season despite battling groin/ankle injuries.
However, they could have a soft landing in their first game without Chase since this Browns secondary has not been great. Through the first seven games, Cleveland has only six takeaways despite ranking 14th with 210.2 passing yards allowed per game.
The Browns will also be without cornerback Denzel Ward (concussion) and could be without cornerbacks Greedy Williams (illness) and Greg Newsome II (oblique), as well as linebacker Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah (knee) who are all listed as questionable. If a few of those guys are out, it could make moving the ball even easier for Joe Burrow.
However, Cincinnati might also hope to be able to run the ball more effectively than they have been. Cleveland is 24th against the run, giving up 135.6 yards per game, but Joe Mixon has really struggled this year for the Bengals behind a mediocre offensive line. He enters this game averaging less than 60 yards per game and just 3.3 yards per carry. What’s worse is that he has only one run of more than 20 yards on the season. There has been just no explosion in this rushing attack.
That’s not the case for the Browns, who are 4th in the NFL in rushing offense at 163.6 yards per game. Cincinnati allows 119.0 yards rushing which is 18th, which could mean good things for Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt (while he remains on the Browns), but even with their rushing success, Cleveland has lost three games in which they have run for more than 170 yards.
Cleveland may also find running the ball a little bit harder this week without two offensive linemen, Wyatt Teller (calf) and Joe Haeg (concussion), who have both been ruled out.
That may mean that Jacoby Brissett will have to do more in order for the Browns to win, but he has just 1,584 yards passing on the season with six touchdowns and five interceptions. As a result, the Browns rank 22nd in passing offense and could find it tough to keep up with the Bengals if their defense can’t keep Joe Burrow and company out of the end zone early.
Picks:
Player Props:
Tee Higgins Over 73.5 receiving yards
We talked above about how the Bengals will be without Ja’Marr Chase and needing to adjust. Tee Higgins will now be the presumed WR1 for Cincinnati in a plus matchup, so I expect him to respond here.
SPORTSBOOK: Bet at DraftKings (-115)
Joe Mixon Over 63.5 rushing yards
This is a bit of a risk, but we mentioned above that this should be the matchup where Mixon can get right. Even while struggling, Mixon averages 57.9 rushing yards per game average this season, so he’s not too far below this total and will now be in a plus matchup with a team that needs to rely on him more.
SPORTSBOOK: Bet at FanDuel (-114)
Joe Burrow over 13.5 rushing yards
The Bengals’ offensive line hasn’t been great. Myles Garrett and Jadeveon Clowney are both healthy for the Browns. That could lead to pressure on Burrow a few times during this game, but he’s shown of late that he’s not afraid to use his legs to pick up some extra yardage.
SPORTSBOOK: Bet at BetRivers (-120)
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