With only a month of regular season action remaining as the NFL hits Week 15, the standings situation around the league is ripe with parity. One massive result has already been entered into the books in Week 15. The Atlanta Falcons completed a 15-point fourth-quarter comeback on Zane Gonzalez‘s game-winning field goal as time expired in a 29-28 win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Thursday Night Football. The loss gives the Carolina Panthers a chance to take the lead in the NFC South divisional race.
In the AFC, eight teams are vying for seven spots with a trio of sub .500 teams (Baltimore, Kansas City Chiefs, and Miami) still hoping to make life difficult over the final month of the season and slip into the playoff party. The situation is more murky in the NFC with 10 teams are in the mix with four games left on each team’s schedule. The battles are getting increasingly more important as the calendar turns and it is always interesting to see which teams step up as the weather turns colder.
Last weekend’s 1-2 record was as frigid as the impending snowy weather in the Northeast part of the country, but there isn’t much you can do about a pair of one-score losses. Those results bring the 2025 record to 27-15 this season. Let’s see if we can get that win figure to the big 3-0 in Week 15, shall we?
New York Giants (vs Washington Commanders)
This one will probably backfire as it has almost any time I’ve selected New York squad in the survivor pool, but I am riding with Jaxson Dart and the New York Giants anyway. Four of my 15 losses this season, or 26% of overall disappointments, were due to backing New York squads this season. Still, there is reason to believe in holiday miracles as long as Dart is under center for Big Blue. The rookie QB should be able to operate against a Commanders defense who has barely stopped a stiff breeze in 2025.
After a trip to the 2025 NFC Championship Game, Washington has endured a tumultuous campaign. The injury bug has crippled the Commanders this season and most of Washington’s offense weapons – Jayden Daniels, Zach Ertz, Austin Ekeler – are all sidelined with injury entering Week 15. It’s going to take a memorable effort from QB Marcus Mariota for Washington to snap its eight-game losing streak against New York on Sunday.
The Giants are listed as home favorites with a 60% chance of victory on Sunday afternoon at MetLife Stadium, according to ESPN Analytics.
Carolina Panthers (at New Orleans Saints)
Not many people outside of Raleigh, North Carolina had the Carolina Panthers (7-6) as the leaders in the NFC South entering Week 15. Carolina has quietly gone about its business by collecting victories in the winnable games on the schedule. With a huge opportunity available following Tampa Bay’s loss on Thursday night, Bryce Young and the Panthers will be looking for revenge after suffering a 17-7 loss at home to the New Orleans Saints in Week 10.
New Orleans (3-10) shocked the Tampa Bay Buccaneers with a 24-20 win in Week 14 behind 199 all-purpose yards from Tyler Shough. The 26-year-old rookie QB has completed 120 of 184 passes for 1,212 yards with five touchdowns and five interceptions, while rushing for 106 yards and two touchdowns (with one lost fumble) across seven contests. Shough will need help from his friends to secure a second consecutive upset win over their division mates in 2025.
ESPN Analytics has the visiting Panthers as slim favorites with a 52% chance of victory in New Orleans on Sunday afternoon.
Pittsburgh Steelers (vs. Miami Dolphins)
The Pittsburgh Steelers will know how much a win over the Miami Dolphins will impact them moving forward as the final game of Week 15 on Monday Night Football. Aaron Rodgers and the Steelers scored a massive divisional win over the Baltimore Ravens in Week 14, and now Pittsburgh will get the chance to watch what the Ravens do against Cincinnati Bengals in the early afternoon window on Sunday. If Baltimore drops that matchup to Cincinnati, the Steelers will have a prime opportunity to stake their claim on the AFC North division with a statement win over Miami.
Yes, Miami is still technically in the AFC postseason race, but it will take a miracle for Tua Tagovailoa to drag his team into the playoffs. The Dolphins have won four consecutive games, but the last three wins have come against NFL squads already eliminated from postseason contention – Washington (3-10), New Orleans (3-10), and the New York Jets (3-10).
Pittsburgh is favored to win the primetime contest at home with a 60% chance to win on Monday Night Football.
Avoid: Philadelphia Eagles (vs. Las Vegas Raiders)
The defending Super Bowl Champions from Philadelphia have lost three straight games, including the worst performance of Jalen Hurts career in a 22-19 overtime loss to the Los Angeles Chargers on Monday Night Football. The Eagles magic number to clinch the NFC East is 3, meaning any combination of Philly wins or Dallas Cowboys losses will secure a playoff opportunity for the Eagles.
Kenny Pickett, the backup signal caller last season’s Eagles squad, gets the starting nod for the Raiders with Geno Smith out of the lineup due to a right shoulder injury. The 27-year-old QB has appeared in three games this season (10 completions on 14 passes for 105 yards and a touchdown), but this will be his first true opportunity for Las Vegas this season. Pickett showcased NFL ability throwing for over 4,000 yards in his first two NFL seasons with the Pittsburgh Steelers. Can he find the magic to stun his old squad and send Philadelphia to a fourth straight loss?
According to ESPN, Philadelphia is considered a heavy home favorite with a 78% chance to win at Lincoln Financial Field on Sunday afternoon.
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