NFC South rivals Atlanta Falcons and Carolina Panthers square off for the second time in two weeks on Thursday Night Football.
Atlanta Falcons (4-5) at Carolina Panthers (2-7)
How to Watch:
- Day: Thursday, November 10th
- Time: 8:15 p.m. ET
- Channel: Amazon Prime
Betting Stats:
- MONEYLINE: ATL (-155), CAR (+130)
- SPREAD: ATL -3
- OVER/UNDER: 42.5
Just 11 days ago, the Falcons beat the Panthers in overtime to take over first in the NFC South. Now they go on the road to try to secure another week and maintain a tie with the Bucs for first in the division.
Matchup:
The first game between these two teams was crazy, with the Falcons seemingly having the game in hand before DJ Moore caught a 62-yard touchdown pass from P.J. Walker with just 12 seconds left. However, Moore ripped off his helmet in celebration and was given an unsportsmanlike conduct penalty that moved the Panthers back 15 yards. Their kicker Eddy Piñeiro then missed the 48-yard PAT — and also a 32-yard field goal in overtime — which gave Atlanta the chance to win.
When the Falcons have the ball, we know exactly what they want to do. They rank 30th in passing offense, averaging just 157.2 yards per game, but they are 4th in rushing offense, averaging 162.9 yards per game. All told, Atlanta is 9th in the NFL in scoring, averaging 24.1 points per game
Atlanta has topped 200 yards on the ground mark three times this season and should be strong again on the ground Thursday thanks to the return of Cordarrelle Patterson. Even though the Falcons ran for 167 yards on 36 carries without Patterson, the veteran is averaging 5.4 yards per carry and scored two touchdowns last week in his first game back.
That bodes well for the Falcons since Joe Mixon and the Bengals ran all over the Panthers last week, collecting 241 yards and five touchdowns on 39 carries. Overall, the Panthers were outgained 464-228 in total offense and gave up 30 first downs while only gaining 13 of their own.
The Panthers’ run defense ranks 28th against the run, allowing 139.3 yards per game but opponents also run on them more often than almost any other team at 31.2 attempts per game. However, they are 16th in yards allowed per attempt and 17th in line-adjusted yards, so their rate stats suggest that they are more average than terrible.
Atlanta doesn’t pose much of a threat through the air, since quarterback Marcus Mariota is 124-of-201 for 1,561 yards with 10 touchdowns and six interceptions. He’s also been sacked 21 times despite adding 304 rushing yards and three touchdowns as a runner.
The Falcons have received tons of criticism for their decision to not use their passing game weapons. Rookie wide receiver Drake London leads the team with 33 receptions for 369 yards and two touchdowns this season and potential breakout tight end Kyle Pitts has just 23 receptions for 285 yards and two touchdowns.
On defense, the Falcons rank 31st overall, so the Panthers have some avenues to exploit the matchup. However, Carolina ranks 28th in passing offense, with an average of 184.6 yards per game, and 22nd in rushing offense, at 105.3 yards per contest. But are now without both Christian McCaffrey and Robbie Anderson.
New starting quarterback P.J. Walker had a great game against the Falcons in Week 8, completing 19-of-36 passes for 317 yards with a touchdown and interception while only taking one sack. However, he fell flat on his face last week against the Bengals, so we’re not sure which version of Walker will show up.
When he does drop back to pass, he’ll be looking primarily at DJ Moore, who leads the team with 35 grabs for 449 yards and three touchdowns on the year, and second-year-pro Terrace Marshall, who has 13 grabs for 201 yards, and a touchdown and is now a starter with Anderson gone. With Falcons cornerback AJ Terrell nursing an injury, there could be some big plays in Carolina’s future.
Staff Picks:
Top Player Props:
If you’re going to be betting on action besides the spread, here are three player props we like from Thursday night’s game:
D.J. Moore Over 59.5 Receiving Yards
As we mentioned above, Moore has become a focal point of this passing attack and has gone over this prop in two of the last three games. Given Atlanta’s injuries and his performance against them last time out, I like Moore to top this prop this week.
Where to bet: D.J. Moore over 59.5 receiving yards | -117 at FanDuel Sportsbook
Cordarrelle Patterson over 53.5 rushing yards
This number just feels too low to me. I know Patterson was on a snap count last game, but he should see more work this game, and we just mentioned above how Joe Mixon destroyed this Carolina defense. Patterson has looked really good this year and is a strong bet here.
Where to bet: Cordarrelle Patterson over 53.5 yards | -114 at FanDuel Sportsbook
Drake London under 36.5 receiving yards
This may seem like a low line, but London has only topped this in one of his last six games. He registered just 31 receiving yards against the Panthers in their last meeting and that was with overtime. I think Atlanta will find success on the ground here and not need to throw often enough for London to hit this prop.
Where to bet: Drake London under 36.5 receiving yards |-114 at Fanduel Sportsbook
